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If you're a calendar year taxpayer and at least two-thirds of your gross income for 2020 or 2021 is from farming or fishing, you have only one payment due date for your 2021 estimated tax, January 18, 2022. The due dates for the first three payment periods don't apply to you. Taxpayers who report on other than a calendar year basis should use their federal estimated tax installment due dates. If the due date falls on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday, the next business day is the due date. For more information on estimated income tax, please review IP 2018(16), Estimated Connecticut Income Taxes; and IP 2018(11 ... If you owe state income tax, 90% of the tax liability must be paid on or before May 17th to avoid penalties. Any remaining balance due would be subject to interest only. If you owe tax, you must either pay through Revenue Online or submit your payment with the Extension Payment Form ( DR 0158-I ). Estimated income tax is the amount of Vermont tax you expect to owe for the year on income that is not subject to withholding. This includes earnings from self-employment, interest, dividends, rental income, alimony, etc. and any additions to your Vermont tax including the following: Along with the Provisional Return of Income, due within three months of the end of the accounting period. No estimated tax payments for tax years beginning 1 January 2020 or thereafter (i.e. single tax return and single payment due date). Pakistan (Last reviewed 20 December 2021) 2) The current tax year payments, made on or before the due dates, are at least 90% of the tax on the current year's annualized taxable income as determined on form IA 2210. High income taxpayers An individual is a high income taxpayer if the federal AGI for the prior year exceeded $150,000 ($75,000 for married taxpayers filing separate federal ... The 2021-2022 New York State budget replaced the highest personal income tax bracket and rate for 2021 with three new brackets and rates. To determine if these changes will affect your 2021 estimated tax payments, see Estimated tax law changes.If you need to adjust already-scheduled payments due to the new brackets and rates, you may cancel and resubmit your scheduled estimated tax payments. Editor’s note: If you’re a small business owner, mark your calendar after you find out when estimated tax payments are due in 2022! Did you know federal income tax is a pay-as-you-go system in some cases? In fact, if you are a small business owner, you may need to file quarterly estimated tax payments in order to avoid an IRS penalty. Income tax estimated forms (current year) Form number Instructions Form title; IT-2105 (Fill-in) (2021) IT-2105-I (Instructions) Individuals : Estimated Tax Payment Voucher for Individuals; Payments due April 15, June 15, September 15, 2021, and January 18, 2022 For the 2021 tax year, you can pay all your estimated tax by April 15, 2021, or in four equal amounts by the dates shown in the table below. Due Dates for 2021 Estimated Tax Payments

Taxation of cryptocurrency transactions in Poland

2021.12.23 08:26 MANIMAMATaxation of cryptocurrency transactions in Poland

Despite the growing nature of virtual currencies - being the digital representations of value and utilities as a medium of exchange, they are still not officially considered to be legal tender in many countries across the globe, including in Poland. But that vague regulatory schemes didn’t stop their extensive use, so the officials are trying to address the legal gaps to minimize the risks and are regarding them as a potential means to increase central government revenue by introducing relevant taxes. In 2019, the legislative body eliminated doubts by introducing statutory measures to address the taxation regime of profits made from digital currencies. The article analyses the amended legislative acts, specifically Personal Income Tax Act (hereinafter “PIT” Act); Tax on civil law transactions Act (hereinafter: “PCC Act”) and Tax on goods and services Act (hereinafter: - “VAT Act”) and tax implication over transactions using cryptocurrencies. Personal Income Tax Pursuant to article 10 of the PIT act, revenues obtained from trading cryptocurrencies are classified as the source of revenues from: cash capitals and property rights, including the sale of property rights; non-agricultural economic activity: if the cryptocurrency is traded as part of an activity that meets certain conditions, ​​including: it is of a profit-making nature, it is conducted on its own behalf by the taxpayer, in an organized and continuous manner (and the conditions specified in Art.5b (1) of the PIT Act are not met). Trading cryptocurrencies generates income, in particular when: selling cryptocurrencies (converting cryptocurrencies into traditional currencies, e.g. zlotys (PLN), euro (EUR), US dollar (USD), exchanging cryptocurrency for another cryptocurrency, for a good or a service. The exchange of cryptocurrencies should be treated as a form of its sale for consideration, similar to the exchange of any other property rights, e.g. receivables. The income from the property rights referred to in art. 18 of the PIT Act arises when money (traditional currency), other cryptocurrency, goods or services are provided to the taxpayer. While the income from the business activities is considered to be amounts due, even if they have not been actually received. At the same time, the date on which the income from business activity arises is the date of sale of the property right - i.e. the date of sale or exchange of a given cryptocurrency - no later than the date of invoice or payment of the amount due. Income tax rates Income from cryptocurrency turnover qualifies for: income from property rights must be disclosed in the PIT-36 tax return form and are subject to general taxation rules according to the tax scale as per article 27, section 1 of the PIT Act, specifically: ​ https://preview.redd.it/8h5em7ih98781.png?width=1866&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ad2aacd9d87aeadad3cd383bd3e5537727f8867 Tax-reducing amount, mentioned in the tax rate table above is deducted in the annual calculation of the tax and is estimated as following: ​ https://preview.redd.it/8tbrmx5k98781.png?width=1716&format=png&auto=webp&s=50aba194b6e6b927fed6868cbacdd6b683092b46 revenues from non-agricultural business activities are combined with other income from this source of income. Then the income (loss) on this account should be reflected in the tax declaration: a) PIT-36, if the form of taxation has been chosen according to general principles, the income will be taxed according to the tax scale (above) as set out in article 27 of PIT; b) PIT-36L, if the 19% flat tax rate was selected for this source of income. There is no need to pay tax on cryptocurrencies throughout the year, in particular sales related taxes. Taxes related to cryptocurrency are settled only at the end of the year as shown in the annual declaration and only the annual tax on all settlements is paid. ​ Tax on civil law transactions The contract for the sale and exchange of cryptocurrency, constitutes as property law, thus is subject to tax on civil law transactions. In conformity with article 7 of the PCC act, as regards sales contract, the obligation to pay this tax in the amount of 1% of the market value of the property right acquired in the cryptocurrency sold - applies to the buyer. In the case of an exchange agreement, the obligation to pay tax - in the amount of 1% of the market value of the property right, on which the higher tax is due - applies jointly and severally to the parties to the transaction. Pursuant to art. 2 point 4 of the PCC Act, contracts for the sale or exchange of cryptocurrencies subject to value added tax (hereinafter:- “VAT”) are excluded from taxation of civil law transactions - to the extent that it is subject to VAT or if at least one of the parties to the transaction is exempt from VAT for this activity. Value Added Tax In line with article 8 of the Act on tax on goods and services, activities in the field of purchase and sale of virtual currencies are subject to VAT as a paid provision of services classified as electronic services, and therefore should be subject to VAT at the rate of 23%. However, for VAT purposes, the concept of currencies used as legal tender also includes the so-called cryptocurrency consistent with the norm Art. 43 sec. 1 point 7 of the VAT Act and CJEU judgment in Hedqvist C-264/14 case from October 2015. Meaning that, trading in virtual currency is exempt from this tax - in practice, anyone who receives income from trading in cryptocurrencies does not have to pay VAT, provided that the transaction is made in Poland. This means that the sale and exchange of a cryptocurrency for traditional currency and vice versa, as well as the exchange of one cryptocurrency for another, as long as it is subject to VAT, benefits from a VAT exemption. Therefore, it should be remembered that, as a rule, the taxpayer does not have the right to deduct VAT on the purchased goods and services related to the mining and purchase / sale of cryptocurrencies. Tax liability in terms of VAT arises when the cryptocurrency is sold / exchanged for traditional currency, as well as when one cryptocurrency is exchanged for another. The tax base (in accordance with the general rules on receiving remuneration from Article 29a (1) of the VAT Act) in the case of trading cryptocurrencies, both in terms of purchase / sale for traditional currency and for another cryptocurrency, is to be expressed in zlotys (PLN ). Tax-deductible cost Tax deductible costs are costs incurred in order to generate income or to maintain or secure a source of income. Such costs are therefore any expenditure which, collectively, meets the following conditions: they were actually incurred in order to achieve income or to preserve or secure the source of income, i.e. they remain in a cause-and-effect relationship with the generated income; have not been mentioned in Art. 23 of the PIT Act, containing a catalog of expenses not recognized as tax deductible costs; are properly documented. At the same time, it should be emphasized that in the case of cryptocurrency trading as part of business activities, the method of accounting and tax recording of the revenues and costs incurred depends on the type of tax books kept by the taxpayer (tax revenue and expense ledger or accounting books). It is worth noting that the tax revenue and expense ledger is a simplified and formalized form of recording economic events, therefore the taxpayer: can make entries in it only on the basis of strictly defined documents listed in the Regulation of the Minister of Finance of August 26, 2003 on keeping the tax book of revenues and expenses, such as invoices or bills. Therefore, documents in the form of statements with the history of stock exchange transactions from the Internet cryptocurrency exchange, or bank statements with the history of transactions, do not constitute accounting evidence within the meaning of the provisions, and revenues and tax deductible costs documented only in this way cannot be recorded in the tax revenue and expense ledger. Inability to record given revenues or expenses in the tax book of revenues and expenses - due to the fact that the taxpayer does not have the form of documenting them required in the regulation - does not automatically mean that they cannot be recognized as revenue and tax deductible costs, respectively, within the meaning of the PIT Act. Hence, if the taxpayer otherwise reliably documents the emergence of tax revenue or incurring the tax cost, it should be taken into account during the current tax year, as well as in the annual income tax settlement: expenses for the purchase of cryptocurrencies are recognized in tax deductible costs at the time of incurring the expenditure, i.e. 'on a regular basis', i.e. on the date of purchase and according to the purchase price; when settling the costs of obtaining revenues from cryptocurrency trading, there are no legal grounds for using the FIFO method ('first in - first out') as referred to in Art. 30a paragraph. 3 of the PIT Act. Other principles of accounting and documenting tax deductible costs apply to taxpayers who keep accounting books, in accordance with the provisions of the Accounting Act, because: the provisions of the act do not contain a catalog of accounting documents that may constitute the basis for entries in the books of accounts, but only define its basic elements. For these reasons, e.g. bank statements confirming the cryptocurrency purchase or sale transactions along with the attached printout of the transaction made from the stock exchange profile of the unit, supplemented with the signature of the person who made the transaction on behalf of the unit, may be considered accounting evidence within the meaning of the Act; there is a division of costs into indirect (deducted on the date they are incurred) and direct (deducted at the moment when the closely related revenue arises); the provisions of the Accounting act allow the taxpayer to choose the FIFO method ('first in - first out') to determine the value of the issue of certain goods. Concluding remarks Crypto assets are becoming a recognized participant in the contemporary financial market. Their increasing value ignites the interests of many investors. Although cryptocurrencies are not yet considered legal means of payment in Poland, officials already established sound regimes to tax transactions carried out using these currencies. Currently, acquisition and possession of digital currencies and keeping cryptocurrency accounts are not taxed, while the incomes derived from cryptocurrency trade are subject to taxation in Poland. Moreover, individuals must submit annual tax statements to declare revenues received from these assets. However, there are still some loopholes in the regulation of taxation, specifically: part of the employees salaries can be paid in virtual tokens, while the legislation doesn’t specify percentage of remuneration to be paid in cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies. The regulatory updates clearly confirm that the government endorses the usage of digital assets as substitutes of traditional banknotes, but the truth of the matter is that their use is not yet comprehensively regulated. The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter, not to be considered as a legal consultation. submitted byMANIMAMAtou/MANIMAMA [link][comments]

2021.12.21 05:36 MillennialBets$UAN - 2022 $60 Yield Distributions Multibagger

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2021.12.20 23:29 beebeezingRoth Conversion Strategy - to Withhold or not to Withhold

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2021.12.20 00:39 MillennialBetsCall the $UBER! Destination: Gainsville, USA

Date: 2021-12-17 13:29:47, Author:u/BigDaddyDLo, (Karma: 2839, Created:Apr-2013)
SubReddit:wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:

Free Dating Sites List

GS 381.8(-3.92%)MS 97.13(-3.16%)JP 1.05(0%)RBC 140.09(0%)TLH 150.35(0.77%)UBER 39.68(5.25%)UBS 17.41(-2.52%)
Hey all, realized I should post my DDs for WSBOGs as well. Enjoy! Original DD
​

Drive with Uber and you can afford first class like me! – Rose DeWitt Bukater, Titanic Survivor

• Similar setup to Dec ‘19-Jan ‘20 rebound (1mo return ~+45%)
• Analyst EBITDA estimates too low; avg PT of $70! (+85%)
• Explosive ’22 EBITDA growth on increased op leverage
• Consistent 2022 Top Pick on Street; screens great for fund managers
• CEO bought 200k shares, major vote of confidence
• Wandered desert for '21, Entering promised land '22
• Calls price for good upside!

Uber is best known for its B2C ridesharing platform, but the variety of logistic-based businesses under its umbrella drive the company's full value. This includes B2B businesses like Uber Freight, which in ‘21 acquired Transplace- a global leader in logistics and supply chain management software- during the early innings of a historic transformation in both industries. Additionally, in markets where Uber could not compete immediately (i.e. China) they invested in leading regional startups (i.e. Didi), allowing them to still profit from the global transportation & logistics transformation while gaining optionality through simple strategic sales. Uber has also developed subscription and loyalty programs, locking in their customer base while taking market share. A consistently smart, strategic approach has made Uber one of the great companies to come out of the 2010s tech boom.
UBER has been getting hammered nearly all of 2021 for various reasons, none of which are due to fundamental shifts in the business. It's a far stronger company than pre-covid, as the pandemic era forced Uber to increase efficiency & financial leverage, making them more profitable on lower bookings. Return to full volume = Profits like Splash Waterfalls (see: Ludacris). Did I mention the CEO just said they had their best bookings week ever? Additionally, they should benefit from travel news over the next month as it continues to see strong recovery momentum despite Omicron.
Two important calendar events happen annually: Entering the new year and the second half. Funds are always for stocks to drive outperformance in that next period, and in the case of Dec, this leads to supply overhangs from tax-loss harvesting (TLH) suddenly being met with swift buying once the “coast is clear”. Like the overhang in ‘19, Uber could rebound out of this period toward the mid-to-high 40s where the CEO purchased 200k shares last month. Market mechanics converging with positive fundamental news should support a near-term multiple rerating.
Recap: This play is taking advantage of a rebound as the coast clears from overwhelming Dec supply (TLH & omicron fears), buying demand re-enters (week of 12/17) helping it break its downward channel, and a sentiment & technical reversal is signaled, leading to further upside momentum.

• Revenue Growth: +49% ’22, +31% ‘23
  • Fwd P/S '22: 2.9x ... valuation and growth speak for themselves. Name one other company growing at ~40% 2yr CAGR trading at only 2.9x Fwd P/S.
• EBITDA Growth: +243% ‘22, +188% ‘23
  • Explosive growth a direct result of prior investments across their platforms
  • Does not yet account for CEO’s comments on 12/14 reaffirming 4Q21 EBITDA toward the higher end of the guide (orig: $25m-$75m), which likely flows through to slight estimate raises across the next calendar year as well.
  • Uber continues to approach full profitability, currently estimated for Q2 ’23. I suspect Uber may pull this expectation forward at their Feb ER.
• Free Cash Flow Growth: ’22 +190%, ’23 +268%
  • UBER’s efficiency initiatives have it on the brink of becoming a colossal FCF generation machine, with ’22 expected to be the year they flip FCF positive for the first time in history. Guess what factor should do well in the next phase of this market? My money is increasing FCF will be top of that list.
• Equity Investments
  • The primary culprit of their Q3 miss, equity investment revaluation (i.e. Didi stake of 144mil shares) drove the bulk of their -$2.4B net income loss, not losses from actual business operations.
  • CEO looking to strategically raise cash from these investments as they rebound in the future; with Didi relisting on Chinese markets, it will eventually flow through as a colossal earnings tailwind in the future.
• Analyst Price Target: $69.50, +86% Upside
  • The buffer makes it a fantastic candidate to rebound and still have plenty of upside following their February ER.
  • UBER named a Top 2022 Pick by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS so far. What do all these have in common? They comprise the bulk of investable assets and represent a significant portion of sell-side flow. Good PMs drive outperformance by buying early in a price turnaround and that’s roughly where we are.

Technicals are horrific due to the relentless nature of the TLH in Q4 as managers offset insanely strong gains elsewhere. However, 2020’s resistance level of $37 has become the new support during the December selling and it is very clearly basing; once the TLH subsides this week, we should have a quick zip upward, officially breaking the upper channel of the downtrend, in turn triggering positive momentum signals which leads to fast money re-entering the stock. See Chart 1 in Appendix
Note: All positions assume a rebound to mid-to-high $40s by expiration. Prior resistance highs were $64.
Gen X/Boomers: Buy stock! No brainer.
Risk-Averse: April ’22 C42.5 currently presents 1-3x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Quasi-Risk Averse: March ’22 C42.5 currently presents 3.9x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Pump It Up! Junior: Feb '22 C45 currently presents 4.7x upside on a post-ER rebound to $50, expands to 9.5x on a rebound to $55, 85% of prior highs.
Pump It Up!: Jan ’22 C40 currently presents 5.5-9x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
WSB Delight: Jan ’22 C42 currently presents 6.5-11x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
​
My positions: I’m accumulating all of the above, finishing my purchasing over the days ahead as we take advantage of volatility from options expiration and the market holding its breath through the Fed announcement. Instead of posting this write up on Dec expiration (12/17) as planned, I decided to crank it out earlier due to the attention boost UBER got 12/14 so people could start legging in positions. Keep in mind the current positioning of the options market should create a gravitational pull toward $40 into 12/17 expiration at the same time TLH starts to subside.
Regarding regulation, which I originally cut for length due to it not being relevant to this trade:

I'm glad you mentioned that as I cut it out for length. As RBC stated in a recent report:
We view outcomes similar to Prop 22 in CA as more likely, where driver protections are put in place with an emphasis on those pursuing full-time driving which affects the minority of drivers.
As BTIG stated in a recent report titled 'UK Ruling More of a Win Than Headlines Suggest':
UBER reclassified UK drivers as workers in 3/2021 and competitors didn't match, which meant thatUBER's costs [already] went up...The net result should be... a level playing field... and finally a scenario in which UBER could raise prices to offset the higher costs... since the reclassification.

Original Comment
Chart 1:
​
Stock found solid support at 2020 resistance levels, leading me to believe this is the bottom. A reversal toward the upper end of the channel should lead to a breakout from the downtrend in price and sentiment.
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2021.12.19 15:25 KonekoBotSun Dec 19 23:25:17 2021

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2021.12.18 14:32 KonekoBotSat Dec 18 22:32:30 2021

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2021.12.18 01:51 MillennialBetsNews for Steel and Construction Industry related Stocks Dec-17-2021

BCC

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	5 Stocks to Keep Tabs on Post Recent Broker Upgrade	Boise Cascade (BCC), Caleres (CAL), Centene (CNC), Commercial Metals (CMC) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) are some of the broker-friendly stocks to watch out for.	64.96	Zacks Investment Research

EQX

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Equinox Gold Announces Agreement to Sell its Mercedes Gold Mine	All dollar amounts are expressed in US$ VANCOUVER, BC, Dec. 17, 2021 /PRNewswire/ - Equinox Gold Corp. (TSX: EQX) (NYSE American: EQX) ('Equinox Gold' or the 'Company') is pleased to announce that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Mercedes Gold-Silver Mine in Mexico ('Mercedes') to Bear Creek Mining Corporation (TSXV: BCM) ('Bear Creek') (the 'Transaction') for aggregate consideration of: $100 million in cash, payable as follows: $75 million on closing of the Transaction; and $25 million payable within six months of closing of the Transaction. 24,730,000 common shares of Bear Creek valued at approximately $25 million based on current trading prices; and a 2% net smelter return payable on production from Mercedes.	6.51	PRNewsWire

EVA

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Enviva Announces Unitholder Approval of Corporate Conversion	BETHESDA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Enviva Partners, LP (NYSE: EVA) (“Enviva,” or “we”) today announced that unitholders voted on and overwhelmingly approved the proposed conversion (the “Conversion”) of Enviva from a limited partnership to a corporation named Enviva Inc. (the “Corporation”) at the virtual special meeting of its unitholders (the “Special Meeting”) held on December 17, 2021. Of the votes received at the Special Meeting, 99.75% were cast in favor of the Conversion. Based on the unith	71.91	Business Wire

KL

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Kirkland Lake Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend Payment	TORONTO, Dec. 17, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (“Kirkland Lake Gold” or the “Company”) (TSX:KL) (NYSE:KL) (ASX:KLA) today announced that a quarterly dividend payment for the fourth quarter of 2021 (“Q4 2021”) of US$0.1875 per common share will be paid on January 14, 2022 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 31, 2021. The Q4 2021 payment represents the 19th quarterly dividend payment made to shareholders following the Company's adoption of a dividend policy in March 2017. The Company's quarterly dividend qualifies as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian income tax purposes. For Canadian shareholders, the US dollar dividend payment will be converted to Canadian dollars using the spot price exchange rate on January 13, 2022, the day prior to the payment date.	40.74	GlobeNewsWire

MLM

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Final Trades: Martin Marietta, Palo Alto Networks, SoFi & more	The 'Halftime Report' traders give their top picks to watch for the second half.	441.51	CNBC Television

MOS

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Mosaic Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.1125 Per Share	TAMPA, FL / ACCESSWIRE / December 17, 2021 / The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) announced today that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.1125 per share on the Company's common stock. The dividend will be paid on March 17, 2022, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 3, 2022.	36.47	Accesswire

MP

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Why US automakers need a rare earth supply chain: MP Materials CEO	MP Materials CEO James Litinksy joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the rare-earth materials company's deal with General Motors (GM) to manufacture magnets needed for EV engines and the supply chain outlook for industries buying into electrification.	42.67	Yahoo Finance

MT

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	ArcelorMittal: Learning From Past Mistakes	ArcelorMittal has strongly benefited from the latest commodities boom.	32.2	Seeking Alpha

NEM

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Here's How The Recent Slide In Gold Prices Impacted Newmont Stock	Newmont stock has declined more than 4% in the last one month, underperforming the broader market (S&P 500) which declined less than 1% during the same period. The recent decline in the stock price was driven by a drop in gold prices.	59	Forbes
Dec-17-2021	Newmont Corporation Announces Pricing of the Tender Offers for its 3.700% Notes due 2023 and Goldcorp's 3.700% Notes due 2023	DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newmont Corporation announces the pricing terms of the previously announced offers to purchase any and all of the outstanding Notes due 2023.	59.34	Business Wire

PAAS

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Pan American Silver trades up on Argentina mining rule change	(Kitco News) - Over the past five days Pan American has traded up 5.21% to $31.73.	24.55	Kitco

SAND

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	SANDSTORM GOLD ROYALTIES ANNOUNCES CASH-FLOWING GOLD STREAM, INCREASES SHORT-TERM PRODUCTION GUIDANCE	DESIGNATED NEWS RELEASE VANCOUVER, BC, Dec. 17, 2021 /PRNewswire/ - Sandstorm Gold Ltd. ('Sandstorm Gold Royalties', 'Sandstorm' or the 'Company') (NYSE: SAND) (TSX: SSL) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into a US$60 million financing package (the 'Transaction') with Bear Creek Mining ('Bear Creek') to facilitate Bear Creek's acquisition of the producing Mercedes gold-silver mine in Mexico ('Mercedes' or the 'Mine') from Equinox Gold Corp ('Equinox').	5.85	PRNewsWire
Dec-17-2021	Sandstorm acquires gold stream from Mercedes mine in Mexico, ups production guidance	(Kitco News) - Sandstorm Gold Royalties (TSX: SSL) announced today that it has entered into a US$60 million financing package with Bear Creek Mining to facilitate Bear Creek's acquisition of the producing Mercedes gold-silver mine in Mexico from Equinox Gold.	5.92	Kitco

SCHN

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Schnitzer Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Date and Conference Call Webcast Details	PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCHN) announced that the Company will report financial results for its first quarter fiscal 2022 ended November 30, 2021 on Thursday, January 6, 2022. The Company will host a webcast conference call to discuss the results at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. The webcast of the call and the accompanying slide presentation may be accessed on Schnitzer's website under Company > Investors > Event Calendar at www	49.66	Business Wire

STLD

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	Steel Dynamics (STLD) Expects Record Q4 Earnings on High Demand	Steel Dynamics (STLD) expects adjusted earnings of $5.69-$5.73 per share for the fourth quarter.	62.74	Zacks Investment Research

X

Date	Title	Summary	Price	Source
Dec-17-2021	United States Steel Stock (X): Why The Price Fell Today	The stock price of United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) fell by over 5% pre-market today. This is why it happened.	23.45	Pulse2
Dec-17-2021	Steel Stock Plummets on Dismal Quarterly Outlook	United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) is down 4.5% at $22.40 this morning, after its current-quarter forecast of $1.65 billion missed Wall Street's estimates.	22.73	Schaeffers Research

submitted byMillennialBetstoVitards [link][comments]

2021.12.16 16:36 upbstockprepper

submitted byupbstocktoOptionmillionaires [link][comments]

2021.12.16 10:15 DangerousDaveyUnaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2021 and a review of recent activities.

Kodal Minerals Plc / Index: AIM / Epic: KOD / Sector: Mining
16 December 2021
Kodal Minerals plc ('Kodal', 'Kodal Minerals' or the 'Company')
Interim Results
Kodal Minerals, the mineral exploration and development company, announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2021 and provides a review of recent activities.
· Significant progress made across entire exploration and development portfolio as Kodal advances its key lithium and gold projects in West Africa
*Bougouni Lithium Project*
· Mining Licence granted in November 2021 covering the proposed open-pit mining and processing operation at Bougouni - the project is now fully permitted for development and construction.
· Immediate commencement of a programme of work in November 2021 to update the Feasibility Study announced in January 2020 ahead of securing funding for mine development and construction. The programme has a six-month time estimate and will focus on:
o Metallurgical test work for variability testing and confirmation of process flowsheet, investigating the potential for increased metallurgical recoveries;
o Completion of geotechnical and hydrogeological reviews for open pit and the tailings dam;
o Update and finalisation of capital cost estimates and operating costs for the proposed development; and
o Community development and stakeholder engagement activities at Bougouni.
· Acquisition of the retained 10% interest in Bougouni concessions from original owners allowing Kodal to further explore development and financing opportunities as the 100% owner.
Nielle Gold Project - Cȏte d'Ivoire**
· Initial reverse circulation ('RC') drilling programme completed consisting of a total of 12 drill holes for 1,285m.
· These intersections confirm the extent and high-grade nature of the mineralisation at Nielle and will be used to focus follow-up drilling to target definition of high-grade zones.
· Gold mineralisation is associated with quartz-carbonate-sulphide mineralisation and remains open along strike and at depth.
· Final assay results confirm high grade mineralised zones with grades up to 38.5g/t gold, and intersections include:
o 13m at 5.07g/t gold from 12m in drill hole NLRC035*

• including 3m at 16.33g/t gold from 13m.

o 12m at 3.14g/t gold from 21m in drill hole NLRC038

• including 2m at 10.79g/t gold from 27m

o 5m at 15.42g/t gold from 7m in drill hole NLRC032

• including 2m at 31.54g/t gold from 8m

o 9m at 4.33g/t gold from 86m in drill hole NLRC038

• including 2m at 16.88g/t gold from 88m

(*Note NLRC035 interval 11m to 12m unable for re-split sampling and not included in calculation)
Fatou Project - Mali**
· Initial RC drilling programme consisting of 11 RC drill holes for 1,242m completed with initial programme focussed on the northern Fatou area where historic NI43-101 resource estimate had previously been completed around an area of significant artisanal workings.
· Kodal is seeking to validate the width and tenor of mineralisation in this area and drilling has indicated zones of sulphide mineralisation as well as highlighting extensions of artisanal workings.
· All samples have been dispatched to laboratory for analysis and results are expected in January 2022.
Kodal has maintained the tenure of all other gold project in Mali and Cȏte d'Ivoire in good standing and continues to evaluate exploration programmes to advance these projects.
Bernard Aylward, CEO of Kodal Minerals, said:

'The six months ending 30 September 2021 and the subsequent weeks continued a very busy period for the Company and we have achieved important milestones that support the Company's ambitions for the development of the Bougouni Lithium Project and the advancement of our gold projects.'
'The granting of the mining licence for the Bougouni Project finalises the permitting required for the commencement of development, construction and operation of this mine. This has come at a very opportune time as we continue to see an exponential increase in lithium demand and strong sentiment for the lithium spodumene market, and the lithium-ion battery market in general. Kodal notes the increasing demand for, and price of, the spodumene concentrate it intends to produce and notes that the current market price exceeding US$2,300 per tonne of concentrate compares very favourably with the price of US$680 per tonne used as the initial price in our 2020 Feasibility Study.
'Our activities at Bougouni continue to focus on the community and environmental aspects of our development activity in the region and are building on our strong relationships as we move to finalise community development and compensation packages as part of our mine development. In addition, we have been undertaking a review of our existing Feasibility Study to upgrade costs and estimates to reflect current expectations and best practices. This work has included a review of our proposed treatment plant plans undertaken with a major Chinese consulting and construction group, to update our original capital estimates and look to improve our flowsheet and metallurgical recoveries. Results of this important work are expected by the end of January 2022.
'Kodal's is active on multiple gold exploration projects across southern Mali and Northern Cȏte d'Ivoire where the Company is continuing to undertake drilling programmes with the aim of proving up what we believe will be a very significant global resource inventory across our gold assets.
'At the Nielle project the shallow, high-grade gold mineralisation from our initial drilling programme is very encouraging. The extent of the shallow-high grade gold mineralisation up to 38.5g/t gold will be important to determine as well as continuing to extend the depth of the gold mineralised structures. Exploration of these mineralised systems throughout West Africa is continuing to highlight the importance of the controls on the high-grade gold mineralised shoots, and our next phase of drilling will also attempt to define the controls and possible plunge directions of the high-grade zones.
'At the Fatou project we have recently completed our initial drilling programme. The initial target area has widespread artisanal workings and the historic drilling has not been able to test fully the extent of the gold mineralised zone. All our samples have been dispatched to the laboratory and we look forward to reporting the assay results as they are expected to be received in January 2022.'

​
Chairman's Statement

'I am pleased to report that Kodal is in a strong strategic position and its exposure to the buoyant lithium market as well as its gold projects augurs well for the continued development of the Company. The lithium market has experienced strong price rises over the course of the 2021 year and this rise is driven both by a clear supply deficit as well as a major increase in the battery market and in particular the uptake of electric vehicles ('EVs').
In the 6-month period ended 30 September 2021, the Group has recorded a loss of £373,000 compared to losses of £255,000 for the 6 months to 30 September 2020 and £623,000 for the year to 31 March 2021.
Cash balances as at 30 September 2021 were £3,085,000 compared to £870,000 at 30 September 2020 and £2,432,000 at 31 March 2021. Cash as at 30 November 2021 was £1,584,000 with the funds spent in the six month period including £880,000 on the acquisition of the minority interests in the Bougouni Project and a further £958,000 spent on exploration and development activities at the Company's projects.
Kodal has an extensive development and exploration programme planned for the Bougouni Project as well as the gold exploration projects. The Bougouni Project is the flagship project for the Company and we anticipate completing our review and update of the Feasibility study, to reflect current pricing as well as potential cost increases from the 2019 base, by the end of January 2022. The Company will also focus on potential funding of the development of Bougouni with discussions ongoing with parties looking to secure a position in the lithium market where it is becoming clear that advanced, near development projects are the focus of corporate activity. The Company will maintain the exploration drilling at the gold projects with the aim of defining new mineral resources that will demonstrate the value of the gold portfolio.
I look forward to reporting on our progress in the Company's Annual Report for the year ending 31 March 2022.'

Robert Wooldridge
Non-Executive Chairman
​
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
​

Unaudited 6 months to 30 September 2021	Unaudited 6 months to 30 September 2020	Audited Year ended 31 March 2021
£	£	£
Continuing operations
Revenue	-	-	-
Administrative expenses	(226,153)	(170,545)	(512,885)
Share based payments	(124,781)	(67,894)	(77,979)
OPERATING LOSS	(350,934)	(238,439)	(590,864)
Finance costs	(22,330)	(16,820)	(32,506)
LOSS BEFORE TAX	(373,264)	(255,259)	(623,370)
Taxation	-	-	-
LOSS FOR THE PERIOD/YEAR	(373,264)	(255,259)	(623,370)
OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Items that may be subsequently reclassified to profit and loss
Currency translation (loss)/gain	61,298	109,594	(223,636)
TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME FOR THE PERIOD/YEAR	(311,966)	(145,665)	(847,005)
Loss per share
Basic and diluted - loss per share on total earnings - pence per share	3	(0.0024)	(0.0023)	(0.0054)

​
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
​
​

Unaudited as at 30 September 2021	Unaudited as at 30 September 2020	Audited as at 31 March 2021
Note	£	£	£
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Intangible assets	6	9,994,766	8,850,606	8,964,089
Property, plant and equipment	7	6,889	11,875	8,677
10,001,655	8,862,481	8,972,766
CURRENT ASSETS
Other receivables	11,631	8,469	1,854,908
Cash and cash equivalents	3,085,708	869,659	2,432,807
3,097,339	878,128	4,287,715
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Trade and other payables	(592,143)	(332,771)	(624,616)
NET CURRENT ASSETS / (LIABILITIES)	2,505,196	545,357	3,663,099
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES	12,506,851	9,407,838	12,635,865
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Convertible loan notes	8	-	(533,116)	-
NET ASSETS	12,506,851	8,874,722	12,635,865
EQUITY
Attributable to owners of the parent:
Share capital	10	4,941,475	3,543,499	4,916,364
Share premium account	10	15,874,194	12,761,601	15,841,134
Share based payment reserve	932,583	797,717	807,802
Translation reserve	(149,162)	122,769	(210,460)
Retained deficit	(9,092,239)	(8,350,864)	(8,718,975)
TOTAL EQUITY	12,506,851	8,874,722	12,635,865

​
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
​

Share capital	Share premium account	Share based payments reserve	Translation reserve	Retained deficit	Total equity
£	£	£	£	£
At 31 March 2020 (audited)	2,889,606	12,514,604	729,823	13,175	(8,095,605)	8,051,603
Comprehensive income
Loss for the period	-	-	-	-	(255,259)	(255,259)
Currency translation gain	-	-	-	109,594	-	109,594
Total comprehensive income for the period	-	-	-	109,594	(255,259)	(145,665)
Transactions with owners
Proceeds from shares issued	653,893	246,997	-	-	-	900,890
Share based payment	-	-	67,894	-	-	67,894
At 30 September 2020 (unaudited)	3,543,499	12,761,601	797,717	122,769	(8,350,864)	8,874,722
Comprehensive income
Loss for the period	-	-	-	-	(368,111)	(368,111)
Currency translation loss	-	-	-	(333,229)	-	(333,229)
Total comprehensive income for the period	-	-	-	(333,229)	(368,111)	(701,340)
Transactions with owners
Proceeds from shares issued	1,372,865	3,079,533	-	-	-	4,452,398
Share based payment	-	-	10,085	-	-	10,085
At 31 March 2021 (audited)	4,916,364	15,841,134	807,802	(210,460)	(8,718,975)	12,635,865
Comprehensive income
Loss for the period	-	-	-	-	(373,264)	(373,264)
Currency translation gain	-	-	-	61,298	-	61,298
Total comprehensive income for the period	-	-	-	61,298	(373,264)	(311,966)
Transactions with owners
Proceeds from shares issued	25,111	33,060	-	-	-	58,171
Share based payment	-	-	124,781	-	-	124,781
At 30 September 2021 (unaudited)	4,941,475	15,874,194	932,583	(149,162)	(9,092,239)	12,506,851

​
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INTERIM STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
​

Unaudited 6 months to 30 September 2021	Unaudited 6 months to 30 September 2020	Audited Year ended 31 March 2021
£	£	£
Cash flows from operating activities
Loss before tax	(373,264)	(255,259)	(623,370)
Adjustments for non-cash items:
Finance costs	22,330	16,820	-
Share based payments	124,781	67,894	77,979
Operating cash flow before movements in working capital	(226,153)	(170,545)	(545,391)
Movement in working capital
Decrease in receivables	13,494	11,509	3,965
(Decrease)/increase in payables	(54,804)	(325,943)	(34,097)
Net movements in working capital	41,310	(314,434)	(30,132)
Net cash outflow from operating activities	(267,463)	(484,979)	(575,523)
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of tangible assets	(1,600)	-	-
Purchase of intangible assets	(954,842)	(93,018)	(535,947)
Net cash outflow from investing activities	(956,442)	(93,018)	(535,947)
Cash flow from financing activities
Net proceeds of issue of convertible loan notes	-	595,801	1,095,152
Repayment of convertible loan notes	-	(22,688)	-
Finance costs	-	(40,966)	-
Net proceeds from share issues	1,887,954	900,890	2,419,241
Net cash inflow from financing activities	1,887,954	1,433,037	3,514,393
Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents	664,049	855,040	2,402,923
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the period	2,432,807	33,221	33,221
Exchange (loss) / gain on cash	(11,148)	(18,602)	(3,337)
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period	3,085,708	869,659	2,432,807

​
NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED INTERIM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
General information
Kodal Minerals plc is a public limited company incorporated and domiciled in England & Wales. The Company's shares are publicly traded on the AIM market of the London stock exchange. Kodal Minerals Plc and its subsidiaries are involved in the exploration and evaluation of mineral resources in West Africa.
Basis of preparation
These unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the six months ended 30 September 2021 were approved by the board and authorised for issue on 15 December 2021.
The basis of preparation and accounting policies set out in the Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 March 2021 have been applied in the preparation of these condensed consolidated interim financial statements. These interim financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the historical cost convention and in accordance with International Accounting Standards in conformity with the requirements of the Companies Act 2006 that are expected to be applicable to the consolidated financial statements for the year ending 31 March 2022 and on the basis of the accounting policies expected to be used in those financial statements.
The figures for the six months ended 30 September 2021 and 30 September 2020 are unaudited and do not constitute full accounts. The comparative figures for the year ended 31 March 2021 are taken from the 2021 audited accounts, which are available on the Group's website, and have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies, and do not constitute full accounts.
The Group has not earned revenue during the period to 30 September 2021 as it is still in the exploration and development phases of its business. The operations of the Group are currently being financed from funds which the Company has raised from the issue of new shares.
The directors have prepared cash flow forecasts for the next 12 months. The forecast includes the costs of further refining the feasibility study at the Bougouni Lithium Project, additional targeted exploration of some of the company's gold assets, and the ongoing overheads of the Group. The forecast shows that the Group has sufficient cash resources available to allow it to continue as a going concern and meet its liabilities as they fall due for a period of at least 12 months from the date of the approval of these interim results. Accordingly, the interims have been prepared on a going concern basis.
KODAL MINERALS PLC
NOTES TO THE CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INTERIM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021

1. SEGMENTAL REPORTING

The operations and assets of the Group are focused in the United Kingdom and West Africa and comprise one class of business: the exploration and evaluation of mineral resources. The parent Company acts as a holding company. At 30 September 2021, the Group had not commenced commercial production from its exploration sites and therefore had no revenue for the period.
​

Six months to 30 September 2021 (Unaudited)	West African Gold	West African Lithium	Corporate	Total
£	£	£	£
Administration expenses	(293)	(64)	(225,796)	(226,153)
Share based payments	-	-	(124,781)	(124,781)
Loss for the period	(293)	(64)	(350,577)	(350,934)
At 30 September 2021
Trade and other receivables	-	-	11,631	11,631
Cash and cash equivalents	11,025	32,831	3,041,852	3,085,708
Trade and other payables	-	(298,683)	(293,460)	(592,143)
Intangible assets - exploration and evaluation expenditure	2,078,176	7,916,590	-	9,994,766
Property plant and equipment	-	6,889	-	6,889
Net assets	2,089,201	7,657,627	2,760,023	12,506,851

​
​

Six months to 30 September 2020 (Unaudited)	West African Gold	West African Lithium	Corporate	Total
£	£	£	£
Finance costs	-	-	16,820	16,820
Administration expenses	199	68	170,278	170,545
Share based payments	-	-	67,894	67,894
Loss for the period	199	68	254,992	255,259
At 30 September 2020
Other receivables	-	-	8,469	8,469
Cash and cash equivalents	7,479	2,176	860,004	869,659
Trade and other payables	-	(300,676)	(32,094)	(332,771)
Convertible loan notes	-	-	(533,116)	(533,116)
Intangible assets - exploration and evaluation expenditure	1,203,489	7,647,117	-	8,850,606
Property plant and equipment	-	11,875	-	11,875
Net assets	1,210,968	7,360,491	303,263	8,874,722

Continue to Part 2
submitted byDangerousDaveytoKodalminerals [link][comments]

2021.12.16 06:41 MillennialBetsCall the $UBER! Destination: Gainsville

Date: 2021-12-15 08:45:26, Author:u/BigDaddyDLo, (Karma: 2799, Created:Apr-2013)
SubReddit:WallStreetBets, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
GS 389.91 MS 99.43 JP 1.06 RBC 140.09 TLH 149.55 UBER 37.83 UBS 17.59

Drive with Uber and you can afford first class like me! – Rose DeWitt Bukater, Titanic Survivor

• Similar setup to Dec ‘19-Jan ‘20 rebound (1mo return ~+45%)
• Analyst EBITDA estimates too low; avg PT of $70! (+85%)
• Explosive ’22 EBITDA growth on increased op leverage
• Consistent 2022 Top Pick on Street; screens great for fund managers
• CEO bought 200k shares, major vote of confidence
• Wandered desert for '21, Entering promised land '22
• Calls price for good upside!

Uber is best known for its B2C ridesharing platform, but the variety of logistic-based businesses under its umbrella drive the company's full value. This includes B2B businesses like Uber Freight, which in ‘21 acquired Transplace- a global leader in logistics and supply chain management software- during the early innings of a historic transformation in both industries. Additionally, in markets where Uber could not compete immediately (i.e. China) they invested in leading regional startups (i.e. Didi), allowing them to still profit from the global transportation & logistics transformation while gaining optionality through simple strategic sales. Uber has also developed subscription and loyalty programs, locking in their customer base while taking market share. A consistently smart, strategic approach has made Uber one of the great companies to come out of the 2010s tech boom.
UBER has been getting hammered nearly all of 2021 for various reasons, none of which are due to fundamental shifts in the business. It's a far stronger company than pre-covid, as the pandemic era forced Uber to increase efficiency & financial leverage, making them more profitable on lower bookings. Return to full volume = Profits like Splash Waterfalls (see: Ludacris). Did I mention the CEO just said they had their best bookings week ever? Additionally, they should benefit from travel news over the next month as it continues to see strong recovery momentum despite Omicron.
Two important calendar events happen annually: Entering the new year and the second half. Funds are always for stocks to drive outperformance in that next period, and in the case of Dec, this leads to supply overhangs from tax-loss harvesting (TLH) suddenly being met with swift buying once the “coast is clear”. Like the overhang in ‘19, Uber could rebound out of this period toward the mid-to-high 40s where the CEO purchased 200k shares last month. Market mechanics converging with positive fundamental news should support a near-term multiple rerating.
Recap: This play is taking advantage of a rebound as the coast clears from overwhelming Dec supply (TLH & omicron fears), buying demand re-enters (week of 12/17) helping it break its downward channel, and a sentiment & technical reversal is signaled, leading to further upside momentum.

• Revenue Growth: +49% ’22, +31% ‘23
  • Fwd P/S '22: 2.9x ... valuation and growth speak for themselves. Name one other company growing at ~40% 2yr CAGR trading at only 2.9x Fwd P/S.
• EBITDA Growth: +243% ‘22, +188% ‘23
  • Explosive growth a direct result of prior investments across their platforms
  • Does not yet account for CEO’s comments on 12/14 reaffirming 4Q21 EBITDA toward the higher end of the guide (orig: $25m-$75m), which likely flows through to slight estimate raises across the next calendar year as well.
  • Uber continues to approach full profitability, currently estimated for Q2 ’23. I suspect Uber may pull this expectation forward at their Feb ER.
• Free Cash Flow Growth: ’22 +190%, ’23 +268%
  • UBER’s efficiency initiatives have it on the brink of becoming a colossal FCF generation machine, with ’22 expected to be the year they flip FCF positive for the first time in history. Guess what factor should do well in the next phase of this market? My money is increasing FCF will be top of that list.
• Equity Investments
  • The primary culprit of their Q3 miss, equity investment revaluation (i.e. Didi stake of 144mil shares) drove the bulk of their -$2.4B net income loss, not losses from actual business operations.
  • CEO looking to strategically raise cash from these investments as they rebound in the future; with Didi relisting on Chinese markets, it will eventually flow through as a colossal earnings tailwind in the future.
• Analyst Price Target: $69.50, +86% Upside
  • The buffer makes it a fantastic candidate to rebound and still have plenty of upside following their February ER.
  • UBER named a Top 2022 Pick by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS so far. What do all these have in common? They comprise the bulk of investable assets and represent a significant portion of sell-side flow. Good PMs drive outperformance by buying early in a price turnaround and that’s roughly where we are.

Technicals are horrific due to the relentless nature of the TLH in Q4 as managers offset insanely strong gains elsewhere. However, 2020’s resistance level of $37 has become the new support during the December selling and it is very clearly basing; once the TLH subsides this week, we should have a quick zip upward, officially breaking the upper channel of the downtrend, in turn triggering positive momentum signals which leads to fast money re-entering the stock. See Chart 1 in Appendix
Note: All positions assume a rebound to mid-to-high $40s by expiration. Prior resistance highs were $64.
Gen X/Boomers: Buy stock! No brainer.
Risk-Averse: April ’22 C42.5 currently presents 1-3x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Quasi-Risk Averse: March ’22 C42.5 currently presents 3.9x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Pump It Up! Junior: Feb '22 C45 currently presents 4.7x upside on a post-ER rebound to $50, expands to 9.5x on a rebound to $55, 85% of prior highs.
Pump It Up!: Jan ’22 C40 currently presents 5.5-9x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
WSB Delight: Jan ’22 C42 currently presents 6.5-11x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
​
My positions: I’m accumulating all of the above, finishing my purchasing over the days ahead as we take advantage of volatility from options expiration and the market holding its breath through the Fed announcement. Instead of posting this write up on Dec expiration (12/17) as planned, I decided to crank it out earlier due to the attention boost UBER got 12/14 so people could start legging in positions.
Regarding regulation, which I originally cut for length due to it not being relevant to this trade:

I'm glad you mentioned that as I cut it out for length. As RBC stated in a recent report:
We view outcomes similar to Prop 22 in CA as more likely, where driver protections are put in place with an emphasis on those pursuing full-time driving which affects the minority of drivers.
As BTIG stated in a recent report titled 'UK Ruling More of a Win Than Headlines Suggest':
UBER reclassified UK drivers as workers in 3/2021 and competitors didn't match, which meant that UBER's costs [already] went up. ...The net result should be... a level playing field... and finally a scenario in which UBER could raise prices to offset the higher costs... since the reclassification.

Original Comment
Chart 1:
Stock found solid support at 2020 resistance levels, leaving me to believe this is the bottom. A reversal toward the upper end of the channel should lead to a breakout from the downtrend in price and sentiment.
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.10 23:36 Adderalintest

This is a guide that hopefully helps someone who was on the track to FIRE but due to life events they had no choice but to file for Social Security Disability. This guide is intended for an audience who previously had a high savings rate, is possibly already FI, who has flexibility, and how you can get the most benefit out of the SSDI and Medicare system. This guide also applies to anyone who is age 65 and is facing the decision to enroll in Medicare.
I decided to write this guide as quite frankly some of the financial planning steps I had to navigate was not written anywhere on the internet, outside the knowledge of most insurance professionals, and even SHIP counselors, with one counselor telling me: 'You have to read the Medigap contract itself. You're on own for the answers you're asking me. The Federal Consumer protection laws regarding guaranteed renewable coverage and moving only applies to age 65+ people and the Medigap insurance company doesn't have to follow those laws for under age-65 disabled people in the insurance contracts they write.'
Finally, I decided to write this guide as it's the unfortunate fact that some of us who are on the FIRE path will be hit with the hard choice of having to accept our fate and file for government benefits. I hope what I've gone through helps others in the same situation.
The biggest financial decision you will make after 24 months of paid benefits on SSDI is do you want a Medicare plan or a Medicare Advantage plan.
Original Medicare allows one to see any doctor in all 50 states who accepts Medicare assignment. It allows for the best treatment, the best flexibility, and so on.
Medicare Advantage allows one to irrevocably (after a waiting period) forfeit their Medicare rights to join a private health insurance network of local doctors and specialists. Out of state care is not covered other than genuine true emergencies such as a heart attack. Medicare pays roughly $1,000 a month per enrollee to the private health insurance plan which is why many is able to offer $0 monthly premiums + drug coverage, and possibly throw on dental + vision.
Having been FIRE focused, having a substantial amount of savings, and having a large private disability insurance policy, the choice for me was a no brainer:
Grab Original Medicare. I've always bought PPO plans at work vs HMO plans and this is essentially the same choice. If you prefer PPO go Medicare. If you prefer HMO then Advantage is fine.
We all celebrated the ACA passing. The ACA introduced three very important provisions legally:

• Removal of lifetime benefit limits
• Coverage of pre-existing conditions
• Introduction of an annual out of pocket max figure

Sadly, while the whole nation focused on the ACA and healthcare, they missed one crucial component: 8.2 million people who are on SSDI and legally entitled to Medicare health insurance.
Original Medicare is both awesome AND it sucks ass. Part A is awesome, you only pay $1,556 per hospitalization that lasts under 60 days with ZERO CO-INSURANCE. Part B however sucks, it's 80% from Medicare and 20% co-insurance, with NO out of pocket max.
Many people hear no out of pocket max and are really afraid of going broke on Medicare, and sign up for a Medigap plan. I felt the same way - I felt really scared of having a $1 million hospitalization and owing $200,000.
Getting a Medigap plan (or having Retiree Healthcare Coverage) is the only way to prevent this. Medicare has a great guide on what supplemental insurance is and a nice breakdown of the available standardized plans.
Medigap is advertised heavily as the best way of avoiding a $200k bill, but unfortunately, for an under-age 65 disabled person they are sold in a few specific states like California and Oregon, and insurance companies refuse to sell them to under age-65 disabled in most states. The premiums are through the roof for under age-65 disabled too, basically age 90 pricing with a Part G plan being $400+ a month and a Part-G high-deductible plan being $110+ a month.
So I did some research - there are some doctors out there like Dr. David Belk, MD who do the actual math on a hospitalization. So Dr. Belk has some examples on how a giant $1 million hospitalization will be written down to only your $1,556 (2022 figures) Part-A deductible, and thus thanks to aggressive cost negotiation having no out of pocket max isn't a scary thing at all.
So, now that we have two extremes - one where we could be literally bankrupt and another one where we could be ok. I scoured the Bogleheads.org website to find Medicare billing stories and the truth is it's in the middle. The reality is Dr. Belk is 100% right on an under day 60 hospitalization is going to cost you $1,556 with zero co-insurance.
The other reality is hospitals and healthcare is greedy as hell. These days most the hospital on-call doctors and staff are going to be a separate corporation who's a contractor to the hospital making a 'home' visit or some such, and they will bill your part B. Then if you don't have a Medigap policy you'll limit your surgeries to in-patient hospitalization stays only, as ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) are billed under part B. One Boglehead had heart surgery in an ASC with no Medigap, the medicare allowed amount was roughly $100k, and he roughly had a $20k co-insurance payments. Figures I can find on the forums there range between $10k-$50k of part-B co-insurance for hospitalizations thanks to heavy legal billing of a patient's part B coverage in the hospital.
So, you won't be facing a $200k bill but a $20k heart attack surgery bill will still be 15 years of a Medigap High Deductible premium. I decided Megigap is worth it. The high-deductible plan G is your best coverage financially if seeing FIRE. A $400/mo Plan-G one isn't - that's a heart attack every 4 years.
Finally, there is a lot of stories of people with Original Medicare without a supplemental insurance plan facing credit checks getting established at a new doctor's office. You might face having to pay upfront the estimated Patient Responsibility or otherwise be financially discriminated if you're on original Medicare without supplement insurance. For us seeking FIRE and have above average financial means it pays for someone to seriously consider getting a supplement plan. The high deductible plans are a great value.
After finding out what seems to be closest to the truth, I made the decision to stay living in California to be able to get a Medigap plan. Oregon and California require Medigap companies to sell plans to residents of their state. Some other states likewise may have Medigap plans available. If you're on the FIRE path, and your willing and able to financially and physically relocate, then I recommend moving or staying put in those Medigap friendly states until you obtain your Medigap contract.
The great thing about Medigap is it's guaranteed renewable. As long as you pay your premiums, it cannot be cancelled even if you move. Unfortunately, there is one huge caveat here that a SHIP counselor pointed out to me: Those laws only apply to the age-65+ crowd. You'd have to read your Medigap policy to be sure it states those terms.
My Medigap policy stated those terms in my case. It even explicitly stated I was allowed to move. I was then later able to move to a low cost of living state, and then after an hour on the phone with customer service who wanted to cancel me for moving out of the Medigap's service area - I prevailed and kept my California Medigap policy in a new state that doesn't sell Medigap to under-age 65 disabled people.
You have a legal right to buy a Medigap policy in California and Oregon and any other states that require this. If you're under a group healthcare plan they cannot interfere with this right. Furthermore, under a 1999 law - the Ticket to Work and Work Incentives Improvement Act of 1999, you have a legal right to suspend or resume your Medigap plan at any time:
https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Health-Plans/Medigap/downloads/mdgp0104.pdf
I was in a very unique situation. The startup I worked at as a CTO decided to boot me out of their Retiree Healthcare Plan I helped set up for under-age 65 disabled employees when I became entitled to Medicare and they legally didn't have to offer COBRA coverage anymore. (My lawyer and I suspect they booted me out due prescription costs and it wasn't related to obtaining Medigap.) In the mean time I bought a Medigap policy. Later, the coverage was re-instated. Now I was in a situation where I had secondary coverage under two plans and it would be a huge mess. I decided to suspend my Medigap plan.
This suspension of the Medigap plan is indefinite. If you're ever in a situation where you become covered under a group health plan (such as you decide to start working again), then you're legally able to suspend your Medigap plan and freeze the premium payments. Likewise, if you are in a situation where your group health plan deteriorates, you can unsuspend the Medigap plan, then cancel the group health plan coverage.
Accepting disability benefits isn't a life long choice. You can certainly attempt to work. If you're FIRE focused or have substantial savings/private insurance/etc, I recommend only making any work attempts after you've obtained Medicare. Medicare allows you to work and will pay your part A premiums for up to 8.5 years as long as you still have the disabling condition and meet their rules for being disabled.
If you want to make a work attempt, I highly recommend enrolling in the ticket to work program. The biggest benefit of that is working will not trigger a continuing disability review.
Unfortunately I had a severance payment that was paid as part of my comp package in the event of disability. It was reported properly to the California SSDI office. However, when I moved out of state a new SSDI claims handler only read the top of my file and missed or didn't count the severance agreement. That handler saw I had an extra quarterly payment of work in California. It triggered a medical review which they fortunately found I was still disabled, but it used 3 of my 9 months of going over substantial gainful activity. I successfully appealed this.
How SSDI works is if you make over 1,350 a month (2022 figures), you can get nine months of working while still receiving benefits. However, if you make over $940 a month using a Trial Work Period up (2021 figures - 2022 not released), it will trigger a medical review. Ticket to Work protects you from medical reviews for the first 12 months, and possibly a lot longer depending on how many Trial Work Periods you use up, and how your work progress goes.
Under Medicare your Part B premium can be as high as $578.30 a month if you make too much income. hat works out to $6,939.6 a year in premiums. It gets charged two years later from the income on your tax return. A Pre-tax to Roth IRA conversion in 2021 will make you pay these premiums in 2023.
I'm under an unique situation where my entire SSDI and disability benefits are tax free in a given year. I owe zero federal income tax liability ignoring any capital gains from HFEA in my taxable account. I also have a huge pre-tax 401k account I want to make 100% Roth in the 22-24% tax brackets. It's 200k, I converted $100k pre-tax in 2021 converted to roth, and want to roll over the remaining $100k in 2022. However, those conversions make SSDI fully taxable, and bumps me in the $142k+ bracket after capital gains running HFEA in my taxable account. I also got hit with IRMAA for my severance payment.
Doing those conversions will make me subject to IRMAA. However, you can request a new decision for IRMAA.
How it basically works is there are certain life events such as marriage, work stoppage, etc you can only use once. (These life events fortunately reset when you turn age-65 and get Medicare for non-disabled reasons.) Your date of disability counts as a work stoppage event too. You must use this life event within two tax years.
Working it out with the local Social Security Office I'm able to do this: Convert $100k in 2021, Convert $100k in 2022. When I get my IRMAA letter for the 2021 tax year in December 2022 I give them my 2023 income estimate on form 44 with my 2019 work stoppage date. Doing this and I won't get ANY IRMAA hit on the 2021 and 2022 conversions! I just dodged 2023 and 2024 having high Medicare premiums.
My advice is to seriously convert as much pre-tax to Roth as it makes financial sense for you to do (tax bracket, state income taxes, etc), and file your Form 44 IRMAA New Decision request when you knock out two birds with one stone - literally.
The best resources one can utilize is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Website, your local social security office (call and request a specialist), and finally your local State Health Insurance Assistance Program.
I hope my guide is able to help for anyone in my shoes who's under age 65, disabled, and was on the path to financial independence.
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2021.12.10 01:07 TemporalRecon177Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Announces 2022 Guidance

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2021.12.09 23:35 ar_david_hhDec/9/2021: Ex-police chief Gasparyan & family charged w/laundering __ Gov't to boost diamond exports __ Drones & labs __ North-South & regional routes __ Ex-captives charged w/violating mil. order __ Illegal building bill __ Solar & Fruit dryer __ Constitutional Court verdict on MP __ CIS bills

This is your 16-minute Wednesday briefing in 4121 words.

government will establish a new 'Arm-Almast' CSJC diamond company to boost processing and exports

Official: it's for developing the strategically important diamond business, promoting exports to EAEU and third countries, attracting investments for future expansion, and to find new cooperation avenues with Russia's 'Alrosa' diamond giant.
This will allow annual diamond exports to reach $150M. The field will employ 5,000 people with 20-25 large manufacturers. //
Report: if the company with state participation imports the raw materials and distributes them to local firms, it will address several issues, such as maintaining the principle of equality between firms with different capacities.
Russian Alrosa supported the idea of dealing with a state company. The creation of this new company is being done for that purpose. It will act as a consolidating structure:
1) The company signs agreements with Armenian diamond firms. The company helps the firms by organizing inspections of raw materials in Russian Alrosa.
2) After the inspection phase, if a purchase agreement is reached, the firms transfer the payments to the company, which then deals with Russian Alrosa to finalize the purchase process.
If the firms use these services, they will pay a fee to Arm-Almast. The amount will be decided by the company board, consisting of industry members including those from diamond firms. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://iravaban.net/360933.html
Tags: #diamonds

Sri Lanka wants to do precious stone business with Armenia

Their ambassador (in Moscow) organized a virtual meeting with the Economy Ministry, Armenian importers, and Sri Lankan exporters. 'We have the stones, you have the jewelry industry.'
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070363.html

new one of a kind dried fruit production facility opens in Armenia

Report: Armenia has a new innovative and portable fruit dryer, equipped with a thermal pump, solar heating, water heating, and other modern tech. It's unique in the international market, too.
The mobile station was manufactured by Optimum Energy. It saves 30-60% on energy costs compared to other industry options. It works on electricity, including solar. These savings lower the cost of dried fruits.
The station, which was created with funding from the government and AGBA, was recently purchased by one producer. Favorable loans are being offered to purchase one of these. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070371.html

anti-corruption: former police chief Vladimir Gasparyan is charged with ֏2B laundering / family members accused of having a field day in defense ministry

Anti-Corruption Committee reports: Gasparyan, being a public official in 2008-2018, abused his powers and committed corruption. He obtained expensive mansions and vehicles that cost far greater than his family's income and attempted to conceal it through various means, including by registering them under friends' names.
Gasparyan's wife, serving as an official at Defense Ministry's Military Police in 2010-2011, did not visit her office and did not work, while Gasparyan and his subordinates ensured that she received ֏17M in salaries.
While serving in other MOD military police positions in 2011-2018, Gasparyan's wife performed her duties improperly for no valid reason, by giving herself vacations to foreign countries, without reporting it [I NEED ONE OF THOSE!]. Gasparyan intentionally allowed this to happen, while paying her ֏19M in salaries illegally.
Gasparyan's daughter also served in the military police in 2015-2018. She never went to work but got paid ֏9M. Gasparyan intentionally allowed this to happen.
Moreover, while serving as the president of Dinamo sports organization in 2012-2019, Gasparyan conspired with others to forge property documents. They tried to give 1ha Yerevan land and part of Dinamo property to Rafik Hayrapetyan's 'Noratsvats Pyunik' soccer club. They weren't able to finish the crime, however, because the cadastre committee blocked the process. It would have caused ֏858M in damages.
While holding exclusively state positions between 1982-2018, Vladimir Gasparyan appropriated properties that he stole between 2000-2018. In particular, Gasparyan and his family legally earned ֏353M between 1995-2021, but their properties and expenses exceeded ֏2.478B between 2005-2021.
The investigation has revealed that Gasparyan laundered ֏2.116B worth properties with the help of his associates. He is charged with crimes. The investigation continues. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070323.html
Tags: #VladimirGasparyan

anti-corruption: former mayor of Vardenis is charged with crimes

Investigators: he stole funds meant for low-income families with the help of accomplices. He also allowed for illegal construction to continue. The accomplices have confessed to stealing ֏232M. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070381.html

Pashinyan participated in the summit for democracy hosted by Joe Biden

Hundreds of world leaders and NGOs will take part in the two-day summit. Pashinyan will give a speech tomorrow.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070387.html

Constitutional Court rules that if you're charged with crimes, then become an MP while in jail, you qualify for MP's immunity

The court has sided with the opposition HD alliance, whose MPs are in jail under the suspicion of election fraud and corruption. The MPs were not yet elected as MPs at the time of their legal problems.
A defendant's lawyer will ask the lower court to free the client, citing the Constitutional ruling.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070382.html

today in history

Today is UN's International Anti-Corruption Day
1883: Western Armenian writer Hagop Oshagan is born.
1918: Armenian and Georgian soldiers clash over disputed territories for the duration of 3 weeks.
1942: Aram Khachaturyan's Gayane ballet is premiered in the theater
1968: Douglas Engelbart displays the computer mouse
1991: Yerevan Karl Marx University is renamed 'National Polytechnic University of Armenia'.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070273.html

Azerbaijan violates ceasefire on Gegharkunik borders

MOD: Azerbaijan violated the ceasefire on the evening of December 8. The fire was suppressed. No injuries. We urge Azerbaijan to refrain from provocative actions.
Another ceasefire violation occurred today on Gegharkunik borders. The Armenian side returned fire. Two soldiers sustained light wounds. //
Azerbaijan claimed that one of its soldiers was killed during a shootout on the eastern border yesterday.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070288.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070362.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070377.htmlhttps://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/227053

Russian Gen. Muratov: Russian peacekeepers will complete their “duty” of returning Armenian POWs

Muratov, who is the former chief peacekeeper in Artsakh and the deputy commander of the Southern Military District of the Russian army, said that there is a 'positive understanding' in the issue of repatriating POWs. 'The issue must be fully closed.'
Pashinyan and Parliament president Simonyan met the Red Cross representative to continue discussions about the need to repatriate POWs.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070308.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070334.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070338.html

authorities arrest 5 of the 10 POWs who recently returned home

As you may recall from previous posts, Parliament president Alen Simonyan said during a private conversation that some of the captives had disobeyed orders on November 16 and were captured while fleeing. Pashinyan also made general remarks about criminal investigations to learn details about how some of the soldiers were captured.
Investigative Committee today: we have arrested five of the 10 captives who were transferred on December 4. The court is discussing their pre-trial arrest. //
The charges are relating Article 365.3: violating the rules of military service which led to severe consequences.
https://armeniasputnik.am/20211209/hh-veradardzats-gerineric-5-in-kalanavvorelu-mijnvordutjun-e-nerkajacvel-36255738.html

two Azeris died from a landmine explosion in the occupied Shushi region

They were conducting repairs in Qarin Tak, reported the Azeri media.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070333.html

Russia: we expect Armenia and Azerbaijan to form the border demarcation commission ASAP

The Sochi agreements have confirmed the readiness of the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities to take further steps to resolve the situation, said Russian MFA.
In other news, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the parties should refrain from making statements that can disrupt ongoing negotiations, when she was asked to comment on Aliyev's public statements about 'corridor'.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070365.html

NGOs condemned death threats towards journalist Tatul Hakobyan over his stance on foreign policy

Lately, Hakobyan has been writing articles about the need to normalize relations with Turkey and neighbors in general, citing historic precedence when ARF placed aside 'patriotism' and negotiated with Turkish authorities shortly after the genocide.
Hakobyan believes now is not the right time for Armenians to talk about 'Western Armenia'.
He recently made remarks which included 'Հայաստանն այնտեղ է, որտեղ կանգնած է հայ զինվորը' (Armenia is where the Armenian soldier stands). Certain nationalist figures were not pleased. Videos were uploaded [didn't save the link, sorry], calling Hakobyan a traitor.
Hakobyan said he received death threats but hasn't disclosed from whom, but promised he will file a report soon. He requested police protection.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070351.html

Armenian MFA about the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide

MFA: the UN General Assembly adopted its first human rights treaty, about genocide prevention and punishment, on this day in 1948. The Armenian Genocide served as an important precedent for the adoption, which was publicly mentioned by the author Raphael Lemkin.
One of the specific aspects of this Convention is the imposition of a legal obligation on the states parties to the Convention to not only punish but also prevent genocide.
Despite enormous progress, the international community still needs to make further efforts for adequate and timely response, including for condemnation of gross violations of human rights, as well as for holding accountable the states guilty of genocide.
Today there are different methods and tools to commit genocide. Those who justify genocide have not changed their aspiration to achieve geopolitical goals through mass atrocities.
Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070319.html

CIS republics will establish a unified military communications system

Signed in May 2020, it is yet to be ratified by member states. Some have already done so.

The initiative will help the military to exchange all types of information in the armed forces' control system. It will involve the resources of all signatory states.
The transfer and protection of information shall be carried out in accordance with the national laws of the Member State

The government gave a green light to ratify it during today's session.

CIS republics will improve mechanisms to share information about hijacked/wanted vehicles

The government approves the ratification of CIS protocols signed in July 2018, aimed at combatting terrorism and hijackings. The member informs others in the event they find a wanted vehicle.

CIS republics will fight counterfeit products

The government approves the ratification of CIS protocols that aims to prevent the smuggling of counterfeit goods through customs.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://qazaqtv.com/en/news/politics/12721-cis-countries-to-establish-unified-military-communications-systemhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.html

job rotations

Nature Minister Romanos Petrosyan has resigned and will lead the State Control Services.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070379.html

post-elections: Pashinyan's and General Babayan's parties form a coalition to govern in two settlements

QP did not cross 50% in Vayk (Aragatsotn) and Artik. QP candidates will become mayors with the support of the Azatakan party.
In Amasia and Ashotsk, QP received the most votes but was unable to form a coalition with local forces, so they won't appoint the mayor.
QP crossed 50% in 15 settlements and received the most votes in 8 others.
https://factor.am/452157.htmlhttps://factor.am/452129.html

government will ban the use of old microbus and bus in Yerevan transport once all substitutes arrive

Official: microbuses that are older than 10 years are scheduled to be prohibited as of 1 July 2022. They must be replaced.
The ban applies to hundreds of old buses, and 750 microbuses from which 140 units will turn 15 next year (HAPPY BIRTHDAY!).
To prevent transport disruptions, the old buses will be allowed to operate until the new network, with new buses and trolleybuses, is ready.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.html

Yerevan will work with the police to catch drivers that use summer tires in the winter

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/227101

MAP: new bypass road will be constructed in Yerevan's Arabkir district

It'll connect Mamikonyants-Aram Khachatryan. The project will cost ֏168M.
It's expected to alleviate traffic on Komitas Avenue, which handles the traffic coming from north and northeast.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/227112

government wants to close a loophole to prevent illegal buildings from being legalized in the future

There is a law that has long allowed people to build illegal structures then use a legal loophole to legalize them. The government complains that it has led to the distortion of the urban picture in many cities.
Justice Minister: we drafted a bill. Illegal structures built in the future won't be legalized. This won't apply to the existing buildings.
If you have an illegal building in Yerevan, you have until 1 January 2023 to submit a petition to legalize it. The deadline is 2025 for villages.
Owners of illegal structures that were built this year, will have 2 months [after the law is passed] to submit legalization paperwork.
Mayors who refuse to follow inspection bodies' orders to suspend an illegal construction will face harsher penalties.
Another important amendment will be made to the litigation process. Currently, if the owner challenges the inspector's order in court, the inspector's order is automatically suspended. After the reforms, a judge has to review them manually. //
Pashinyan: Cadastre Committee is taking aerial photos of Armenian settlements. We will have information about all buildings in the country as of a certain date.
Cadastre Committee: the imaging and field work is complete. We're processing the data.
Pashinyan: the existence of this bill could incentivize some to build new illegal structures now, while they still 'have time', so to reduce such instances, treat this bill as a priority and submit it to Parliament ASAP for discussions and approval.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070305.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.html
Tags: #IllegalProperty #PropertyLaw

COVID stats

7.7k tested. 0.3k infected. 0.2k healed. 19 deaths.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070300.html

dram weakens against dollar

$1 = ֏495, similar to late-2020. Earlier this year it devalued to 530, then 480 throughout the year, and now 495.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/227106

new workforce training program launches in Armenia

Education Ministry: it's a 5-year $7.5M program funded by USAID, carried out by Enterprise Incubator Foundation and partners.
10,000 young Armenians under 30 will receive practical skills for professions that are in demand, through work-based learning. The goal is to provide technical knowledge and soft skills to transform the Armenian labor market. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070292.html

new tech lab will open for students in Technical Creativity Center

Government decree: 280 schoolchildren are receiving technical education at the center. A new tech lab will open for them to help train a professional workforce. Part of the N159 school building will be attached to the center for the lab. //
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.html

more drone engineering labs are set to open this month

Today the government approved a program about building engineering labs in 14 schools in Syunik and one drone engineering lab in Kapan.
Official: At present, the significant imbalance of supply and demand in the high-tech sector is a serious problem. ArMath engineering labs play an invaluable role in providing tech education and professional orientation to students. We need more ArMath labs. //
ArMath engineering center: we will open more labs for 14-18-year-olds to operate and service UAVs. We have one in Dilijan's Monte Melkonian military academy, where children study to fly and service drones. They don't produce them.
There will be workshops, with each hosting 65 children in 3 groups. This will allow us to train 1,750 students annually. The majority will join the army.
It costs ֏6.5M to prepare one workshop with access to 7 drones. Children will create various components themselves. Next year we will organize the first technology camp for UAVs.
Besides UAV labs, we also have robotics/programming/modeling labs for 10-18-year-olds. They can apply the knowledge in practice.
We started opening these labs in 2012. The state began financing in 2014. Private investments helped open 280 facilities since 2016. In 2019 the government funded the opening of another 284 labs.
Expect to see these labs in 600 schools across Armenia. Several dozen have been built and will be built in Syunik this year. We have 22 in Artsakh. //
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/226946https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://factor.am/451888.html

Junior Eurovision public polls: who should win the 2021 competition?

The audience has (so far) given the most votes to Malena, who represents Armenia with Qami Qami.
https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/polls
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070302.html

Saudi Arabia bans dozens of camels from beauty contest over botox

Saudi authorities have conducted their biggest-ever crackdown on camel beauty contestants that received Botox injections and other artificial touch-ups, [...], with over 40 camels disqualified from the annual pageant.

The camels compete for $66 million in prize money.
https://apnews.com/article/oddities-health-travel-lifestyle-camels-b3e4d60991ce053d185cb8ed9cbbca74

solar energy firm SharoSolar receives a tax waiver to invest

The government gave a tax waiver to Sharosalar Ltd to import solar tech and double-sided solar panels for a project in Katnaghbyur (Aragatsotn).
Annual production is 10.5 million kWh. They will sell the electricity to the Electric Networks of Armenia. It's a ֏1.8B project, part of which is complete.

solar firm Magnak Solar receives a tax waiver

It's for making investments in Arev-1 and Arev-2 solar farms with European standards, located in Shoghakat (Gegharkunik).
10.5 million kWh annual production from each. A ֏3.6B investment project.

clothing manufacturer Alex Fabrika receives a tax waiver

They will invest ֏300M and create 30 new jobs.

cosmetics producer Arevi Skincare receives a tax waiver

It's an Armavir-based company founded in 2020. They produce organic cosmetics. 12 new jobs are planned with an average ֏433K salary. The vast majority of products will be exported to the US, Russia, EU.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://hetq.am/hy/article/119994

government allocates ֏1B to finance road & lighting projects in Gyumri

Infrastructure Ministry: it's for renovating roads and building energy-efficient street lighting networks. 26km of new asphalt on 37 roads.
The total cost of the program is €23.84M (EBRD loan & grant). The construction began in 2019. Most of it is for renovating roads and surrounding infrastructure. A third will be spent on the lighting network.

North-South highway & other vital roads

Infrastructure Ministry: works are being done as part of the North-South highway project on Tranche-2, Tranche-3, and Vanadzor-Georgia road. This vital road network improvement program includes 12 settlements, in 10 of which the works have been completed. 55km out of 67km is done.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070314.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.htmlhttps://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070322.html

Abkhazia has offered Georgia to start a border demarcation process

The proposal was made during the 55th round of international discussions held in Geneva. Abkhazia said the demarcation will allow regulating a proper border crossing process in official checkpoints.
Abkhazia also complained about activities by Georgia and NATO forces in the sea and air.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070307.html

Thomas De Waal about unblocking regional trade & transport routes:

Parts of the article: The South Caucasus is experiencing a major reset in trade links. The economic picture is promising. At issue is a series of transport routes that have been closed since the 90s, cutting off Armenia and Nakhchivan.
If they are unblocked, the most noticeable impact will be a reactivated North-South route that runs from Russia to Armenia and Iran via Azerbaijan. The economic boost to Azerbaijan and Armenia could be appreciable.
Rebuilding relatively small sections of railway in Armenia and Azerbaijan would make much more viable the 7,200-kilometer International North-South Transport Corridor, a projected rail route stretching from Finland-Persian Gulf-India.
A new good-quality rail network with minimal border controls would also boost east-west trade, especially if the Armenia-Turkey border reopens. It would enhance the attractiveness of the Middle Corridor, a route carrying goods between China-Turkey-EU via the South Caucasus.
Since the 1990s, there has been an established east-west route via Georgia. The Middle Corridor currently sees very small traffic flows compared to the Northern Corridor (China-Russia). Many are skeptical the Middle Corridor can compete against the Northern Corridor, because it has obstacles such as Caspian and the Black Sea, and multiple borders must be crossed with some countries having difficult customs regimes.
However, journey times have decreased thanks to “block trains” that operate from origin to destination with all documentation having been arranged in advance. One such 'block train' arrived in Tbilisi in February, having left China 22 days before.
Even a tiny increase in the overall share of trade between China-Turkey-EU would have a beneficial effect on the economies of the South Caucasus.
In February Azerbaijan announced it was starting reconstruction of the 108km railway from the town of Horadiz to Armenia. If and when the entire line is restored, the three countries stand to benefit.
Azerbaijan will connect to Nakhijevan. Russian freight traffic can bypass mountains and Georgia to connect to Armenia and Iran. Officials and private businesses in Armenia also see advantages with the new connection to their EAEU partner.
Russia is a major market for Armenian goods. Currently, the shipping costs are high: trucks must travel via Poti port (time-consuming) or Upper Lars road (handles 80% of Armenia's exports to Russia).
Upper Lars is mountainous, often choked with vehicles and by bad weather. It's risky, especially with perishable exports. Armenian traders are penalized when choosing this route.
Armenia will gain another economic benefit if the Turkey border opens: the 60km Gyumi-Kars railway. This route will be used not just by Armenia and Turkish freight, but also by Azerbaijan, Iranian, Russian, etc.
This one will be expensive to restore. A 2013 document estimates $433M to rebuild/repair the entire Baku-Kars link, although restoring it could cost less than three other expensive railway projects that were mooted before 2020.
(THE OTHER THREE PROJECTS THAT WERE MOOTED BEFORE 2020)
One project that could be shelved is the planned 223-kilometer >$200M railway line between Nakhchivan and Kars. Azerbaijan and Turkey are under budgetary pressure. They might opt for a less costly alternative via Armenia. That project was not part of Turkey's 2021 budget.
A second project, a railway from the Iranian border into Armenia, has never been under serious consideration, as the highland topography of southern Armenia makes it expensive and challenging. [mountains and more mountains]
A third 172km rail project, between Azerbaijan's Astara and Iran's Resht, may fade away due to economic problems. Iran could instead choose to use its existing railway to connect to Armenia via Nakhijevan. This suits Iran’s political agenda of partnering with Armenia, vs AZ-TR. This rail connection via Armenia would potentially be the missing link in the International North-South Transport Corridor, whose rationale was to cut journey times from Finland to Iran.
(GEORGIA)
Georgia can no longer take its status as a regional hub for granted. It will need to work much harder to realize its potential as an international transit route. 'These new projects are on approximately a seven-year timeline. Georgia has two years to do some strategic planning,' said a Georgian analyst. There has been little public debate over this in Georgia. The parties are focused on domestic politics.
EU is offering Georgia 3.9 billion euros in grants/loans for better physical and digital connection via the Black Sea.
The oil/gas route currently passes through AZ-GE-TR, while bypassing AM. This route may now have competition. If and when a new southern route opens up along the Araxes river, Georgia will lose a great deal of revenue.
Georgia transfers 11m tons via rail and 7m tons via road annually. Each million ton brings $5M in tax revenue.
With the exception of some projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, much of the Georgian infrastructure is poor. The East-West highway is only partially complete. The rail network needs major investments.
Georgia also lacks a fully modern port on the Black Sea to handle large volumes. Its ports could lose traffic if Armenia gains access to Turkish ports.
A $2.5B U.S.-supported project was launched in 2016 to build a new deep-water port but it was suspended in 2020 amid political problems and accusations that Georgia's leader Bidzina had a vested interest in another port project in Poti. In 2020 they announced that Poti would increase capacity, though to much lower levels than the original project proposed in 2016.
Upper Lars vehicle road goes through the Caucasus Mountains. It's congested and vulnerable to natural and intentional closures. Some of the problems could be solved with a new $558M bypass road.
It would be much cheaper for Armenian traders if a new route to Russia opens up via Azerbaijan along the Caspian Sea coast. [is that right...]
Georgia should take a fresh look at reopening two north-south routes:
1) Georgia has an inactive agreement with Russia to reopen three corridors. Two of these are sensitive because they travel through disputed Abkhazia and Ossetia. This agreement was opposed by some circles in both countries. The Ossetian route, along the TransKAM highway, is much better than Upper Lars - it uses a tunnel.
2) Georgia could try to reopen the Abkhazia railways, closed since 1992. This would benefit Russia, Armenia, Turkey, and Iran. Before 2020, Azerbaijan tried to block its reopening because it would benefit Armenia. Azerbaijan doesn't want to block it anymore, since Nakhijevan could benefit from this North-South route.
Georgian leader Bidzina Ivanishvili spoke in favor of reopening the Abkhazian railway but political opponents accused him of being pro-Russia.
(CONCLUSION)
The economic benefits of unblocking communication routes could extend to every country if Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a deal.
Full: https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/11/08/in-south-caucasus-can-new-trade-routes-help-overcome-history-of-conflict-pub-85729

in case you missed Wednesday news

Pashinyan provided details about the proposed trade routes and jurisdiction, 3+3 platform, Karabakh negotiations.
https://www.reddit.com/armenia/comments/rc1ho6/news_dec82021_pashinyan_about_unblocking_regional/

more

Yesterday's news in English and русский (by Impossible-Ad-).
News archive: http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports Donations: soldiers' families, humanitarian aid, US tax-deductible donation.
The accused are innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they 'appear' guilty.
submitted byar_david_hhtoarmenia [link][comments]

2021.12.09 07:45 SafrelGuide to Reading the 10-Q

submitted bySafreltoSuperstonk [link][comments]

2021.12.08 08:00 njerschowFinding NFTs before they Explode, 10 repeatable NFT trading strategies and when to use them

One of the most important realizations to make about the NFT market as a trader is to understand that there is a critical difference between trading NFTs versus trading crypto (or stocks).
The difference with NFTs is that the people you are competing with in this market are sill, just people. Sure you might be competing with whales, people with trading bots, and insiders, but you aren't yet competing with banks, hedge funds, algorithms, etc (I call this 'big money'). It might not seem that crazy, but think about it this way. All of these entities exist for a reason, to make money. Actually, I'd argue that these entities sole purpose is to make rich people richer.
But, as we all know - there is tons of money to be made in NFTs, so why aren't they apeing in? There are a few reasons
* it's still relatively new and unknown
* they are an absolute nightmare from a legal and tax perspective
* Ethereum gas fees
But the absolute primary reason (I think) is that every single transaction needs to happen through a wallet, and automation is inaccessible short of hiring some (ultra expensive) web3 developers (basically, the dev scene is in its infancy).
A few friends have been telling me to get out of NFTs, and that they will crash soon due to the supply issue. But in my opinion this is the absolute worst time to get out because once the 'big money' comes (and they will come) there won't be much left for the rest of us.
The key to success in trading NFTs is to have a robust trading strategy. This is something the average NFT trader does not have, which is why many of them end up in the red. They either trade quickly, wiping out any gains they might make with the gas fees, or HODL, never selling and in most cases riding a dead collection to 0. I find that these are two ends to a spectrum, and the sweet spot is usually the middle.
I personally have fallen into both of these traps, but over time I've discovered a few strategies that work regardless of which direction the market is moving.
What's cool about NFTs is that they are all hype (not all hype, there's utility, gaming use-cases, staking/passive income, etc. but hype and attention is what governs price 90% of the time). This means that a 'crash' in the NFT space is less like a crash in broader crypto - where everything falls together, but more like the sneaker space, where a few brands might suffer, but overall the market remains healthy. So knowing what collections people are interested in (and knowing it early) is a massive competitive advantage.
(speaking of which - sneakerheads did/are doing very well in the space)
There is no shortage of cool projects, with celebrity backing, innovating, amazing art in the space. So how do you keep track of them all? and how do you decide where to put your money? Here's what I think:
For extra alpha, see my write-up over athttps://chilly.tools/blog/10-trading-strats-nfts, where I add some charts to visualize the strategies and explain how to use thechilly.toolsbot to automate finding tokens with each strategy
There are only so many strategies that can realistically work at any given time. And their effectiveness is inversely proportional to how many people:

1. Know about them
2. Use them

Not all strategies are created equal either, there are strats for when:

1. the floor is going up
2. the floor is going down
3. the floor is going sideways
4. Event-based strats

I've compiled a list of all the strats I've encountered and used, with varying degrees of success. I'm sharing them here because there's another bull market coming, and a rising tide lifts all ships.
It goes without saying that you'll make the most money when the market is moving, especially with proper tooling, but there are also tons of strats that help you make the most of a sideways market. Below I'll divide the strats into different sections, and order each strat from most competitive to least competitive.
But first: four things
One: Almost all of these strategies deal with NFT rarity, if you're here I'm assuming you know what that is, but if not, [here is a good explainer](https://raritytools.medium.com/ranking-rarity-understanding-rarity-calculation-methods-86ceaeb9b98c).
Two: How can I tell if my collection's floor is going up or down?
Good question, Opensea offers average price under the activity tab, but this is 1. daily, and 2. not the floor. You can check floor movement here
Three: In the various market conditions below, you will see duplicate trading strategy names. Make sure to read through them though, because they mean & function slightly differently in different contexts.
Four: This is not financial advice, always be careful and DYOR. The smartest bets are the ones that look good that you also believe in.
Strats for when market/collection floor is moving up
This is likely when you can make the most money, if you are careful.

1. (most competitive) Floor hunter - when the floor is rising, you'll often find yourself getting out-gassed for any floor-priced NFTs, unless you have a bot and are ok with spending extra gas, I'd recommend shooting for NFTs 10-20% above floor price, because if floor transactions fail, you're still paying gas fees (yes failed txns still cost gas)
2. Straggler sniper - for many collections, especially if the collection has just experienced a sharp drop, people will have listed their NFTs at a certain price which might've been fair relative to rarity at the time of listing, however, as floor goes up, many people end up being slow to update their listing. If you can score a 1 ETH rank 500 on a collection with 0.7 floor, thats a huge win. Here's a graph of rarity vs. price to illustrate what I mean:

This is a killer strat because it ends up costing gas to cancel and re-create listings to raise prices, which means it's a great opportunity for us to snatch something unfairly cheap.

1. (least competitive) Arbitrage (avg vs floor) - Arbitrage (or more aptly described as price discrepancy) is very common in the NFT market. There are not enough big players in the market yet to jump on these opportunities before us. There are many different flavors of arbitrage that I've seen work for NFTs, and I'll probably write another post explaining all of those if this post ends up doing well. Avg vs Floor is a discrepancy which is hilariously unutilized. Basically, its common for the floor price of a collection to move, but the average stays roughly the same. Lets explore both possibilities:

• Floor moves up, avg stays same: the more common of the two scenarios. When this happens, any listed NFT that was fair price before the floor movement is now cheaper. In this case, grab up any NFT listed before floor movement that was listed at a fair price among similarly ranked NFTs in terms of rarity, quickly re-list at the new fair market value which you can get by doing (new_floor_price/old_floor_price) * previously_fair_listed_price. Easy flip.
• Floor moves down, avg stays same: You need to be careful with this one, the collection may keep falling, personally I wait a few hours before entering into anything with this. In this case, the current floor NFTs are cheap compared to the average, and it would now be a good time to enter at floor, or exit at average, depending on the market condition for the collection.

NOTE: be sure that there hasn't been some event which is making the market move, this only works in a pure market
Strats for when market/collection floor is dropping
Currently, there are no derivatives that let you take advantage of a falling collection (think shorts, put options, etc.) - however, there are still ways to make money on the way down.
1.(most competitive) Floor hunter - It's common for people to panic and list way below floor to get out as soon as possible rather than risking selling for even less. You can take advantage of these by grabbing them up before anyone else gets the chance. Actually chilly.tools has a feature which scans for these every 5 seconds and just pops up the metamask right away.

• Careful - this is like catching a falling knife, I'd highly recommend knowing why a collection is tanking before using this (exmple: Jungle freaks)

1. Rarity floor sniper - this one is less accessible to most people because looking up rarity obviously takes time, and the faster you are able to know the rarity of a specific NFT the more of an advantage you have. This strategy assumes that there is a direct correlation between rarity and the price of an NFT.

• Such a correlation would suggest that only looking at the floor and sniping near it means you are missing 90% of snipes. What we can do instead is estimate the fair market price by looking at NFTs with similar rarity that sold recently, and compensate for any floor change that occurred. By taking the difference between our estimated fair market price and the listing price, we can find out whether this listing is cheaper than what the market things it should be.
• In practice, there ends up being a really strong correlation between rarity and pricing, meaning this is one of the best ways to get ahead of the crowd.

1. paperhands hunter - nervous people reducing price

• You'll often see people listing their NFT lower and lower, as they get more and more nervous that their NFT won't sell. These are often good tokens to put on your watchlist, and maybe make some lowball offers on. It's highly likely that (as long as the NFT doesn't sell to someone else) you'll be able to get a really good deal.

Careful when using these strategies - you'll want to be very confident in your decisions here, because it could be like catching a falling knife. As with anything on this list, be careful and DYOR. You'll want to be very confident in the collection to buy on the way down, and depending on how fast the floor is falling - flipping can be very risky as well.
Strategies for when market/collection floor is flat

1. (most competitive) Liquidation hunter (hunt NFTs when someone needs to urgently liquidate)

• Sometimes Holders hear about an opportunity so lucrative and time-sensitive that they need to liquidate their holdings right away, so they'll list their NFT way below floor. This is an amazing chance to scoop up an extremely cheap NFT before anyone else can. Careful - many people watch a collection when the trend is flat, meaning you're likely going to have 2 or 3 people simultaneously trying to scoop this one up. I'd set the gas higher when checking out.

1. paperhands hunter - Its common for people to be getting nervous when a collection stays flat for several days, look out for anyone constantly reducing price - it's an easy flip for when volume returns.

EVENT BASED
Below is a list of strategies that work when certain events happen in a collection's life-cycle

1. mint - this one is somewhat obvious, but when a collection first goes on sale, or 'mints', there are a few strategies which are very lucrative

• whitelist - This one is a lot of work, but it is the most surefire way to secure a few cheap tokens out of a collection. Basically, it just involves being a good community member for the NFT collection. So that means: inviting people, being active, saying gm alot, or contributing. I personally don't do this unless I really believe in the team over anything. It's a lot of effort, and other strategies have been more lucrative in my experience.
• mint bot/gas bot - an alternative to whitelisting is to be one of the few who can score an NFT during mint without being on the whitelist. As you can probably imagine, this is incredibly hard to do, and you have to get quite lucky. Many popular collections have 1000 tokens (if not less) available for >200k people. You can increase the odds of securing a token by using a gas bot which will automatically increase gas until the trade goes through. Again, not something I personally do, but has shown great results for others.

1. rarity reveal - once a collection mints, its very common for the actual art (and therefore rarity) to be hidden. Meaning that at this point, every token appears the same as any other. However, a collection will then designate a 'reveal date' when all art will be revealed at the same time. Typically the collection floor will then pretty quickly diverge: the rarer tokens will be listed for much higher, while the most common tokens will often get listed for half, if not less, of the previous floor price. The two strategies I personally look to take advantage of are:

• (most competitive) mispriced tokens - many tokens will stay listed through the reveal, meaning that there is a chance a super-rare token is listed for near-floor price. This is however almost impossible to take advantage of without a bot, as this can be a pretty easy 1ETH+ flip. Chilly.tools has a bot for this which will pop up the metamask so you can buy as soon as possible. I'd recommend increasing gas for this as well.
• Cheap tokens - its typical for the collection floor to slump shortly after the reveal. If you're bullish about the collection, this is a good time to swipe up a few cheap tokens if you weren't able to during mint. In my experience, the collection floor will reach an absolute minimum anywhere from an hour after reveal, to 2 days after.

All of these strategies will work best during high-volume periods. You want there to be a buyer on the other end.
Remember even with these strategies, this is an arms race. You wont win on every trade, but the goal is to come out expected value positive, ideally while minimizing the analysis you need to do.
As of writing this, floors are rising across the board - it's a good time to enter if you were on the fence.
That's all I have for this post, if this ends up doing well, I'll write another about arbitrage and keep sharing my knowledge.
Good luck and WAGMI
- Nikita
Disclaimer: I am the founder ofchilly.tools which brings rarity scores for NFTs directly into OpenSea.
submitted bynjerschowtoNFT [link][comments]

2021.12.04 18:24 bigbear0083Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021.

Volatility could continue to plague markets after a week of violent swings that sent many stocks plummeting.
In the week ahead, investors await more news on the omicron Covid variant and another inflation report Friday that is expected to show consumer prices remain the hottest in three decades.
In the past week, stocks sold off on worries about the omicron variant and concerns the Federal Reserve will move away from its easy policies and raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Congressional panel Tuesday that the central bank will consider speeding up the taper of its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program when it meets Dec. 14 and 15. The Federal Reserve put its bond-purchasing program in place in early 2020 to prop up the economy during the pandemic.
“It’s going to be a somewhat turbulent December because we probably need to wait for earnings season to get regrounded, back to fundamentals,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset. “For as high as a lot of the ratios would suggest, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, when you throw it into the hopper with interest rates and everything else, things aren’t that bad. I don’t think we’re teetering on the edge of a cliff.”
But Ablin did say the comments from Powell were unnerving investors, who fear the Fed will also speed up interest rate hikes. Powell acknowledged he was wrong about inflation being “transitory,” or temporary, spooking investors. The bond purchases are now scheduled to end in June.
“I’m not sure what investors’ read on inflation is. Do they think the Fed is going to raise rates, get ahead of it too early and everything is going to roll over? Ever since Powell took ‘transitory’ out of his talk, investors have been somewhat off balance,” said Ablin.
The consumer price index or CPI for November is expected Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones predict it rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, or 6.7% year over year. That compares to a 0.9% gain in October, and a 6.2% jump year over year, the biggest move in three decades.
High fliers and growth were among the hardest hit Friday, as investors bailed out of some of the riskiest stocks. As stocks plunged Friday, Treasury yields fell. Yields move opposite price, and the move was seen as a flight to safety. The 10-year note yield fell to 1.35%.
The ARK Innovation ETF was down nearly 12.7% for the week. Most of the growth names in the fund plunged into bear market territory. “I think investors have to keep in mind that’s not a 15-week strategy. It’s a 15-year strategy, as far as we’re concerned,” Ablin said.
For the week, the small cap Russell 2000 was down nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 was off just 1.2%. The worst performing major sector for the week was communications services, which includes internet companies. It was down 2.8%, followed by consumer discretionary, off 2.4%. Financials lost nearly 2%, and the S&P technology sector was down 0.4% for the week. But on Friday, tech lost 1.7%.
The Federal Reserve should be quiet in the week ahead. Fed officials traditionally do not make major speeches in the blackout period, which is the coming week, ahead of their Dec. 14 and 15 meeting. One exception is Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who speaks Thursday at the Center for Indian Country Development Research Summit.
Much of the focus will be on how the market itself is performing.
“Ever since the Nov. 22 outside bearish day, all strength has been sold with lots of damage underneath the hood,” said Scott Redler of T3Live.com. “Now finally some of the leadership names are showing faulty action.” He noted that both Microsoft and Apple were weaker.
“Money is not hiding in Amazon, Google, or Facebook. They haven’t been special for weeks,” he said.
The S&P closed below its 50-day moving average Friday, after closing below it Wednesday. The 50-day is at 4,544. That’s a signal to some market technicians that the index is on the verge of breaking down. The 50-day moving average is the average closing price over the past 50 days, and is viewed as a momentum indicator.
“Basically, it’s effectively a retest of support because we had the relief rally [Thursday],” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. She said the S&P 500 needs to close below the 50-day for two consecutive days before the move is considered a breakdown.
“The action in the high growth, high multiple names is not a good sign,” said Stockton. “We do have some signs of downside exhaustion but not as widespread as I would hope. We’re seeing some of the heavyweights, like Adobe for example, taking out levels like the 50-day moving averages.” She said some of those big names have now joined the selling.
“We’re just watching how bad it gets. Monday is going to be the tell,” said Stockton. “That also gives it the weekend to settle... Extremes have gotten a little bit more extreme. Sentiment is the most oversold from a contrarian perspective since the October low.”

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

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(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

At the close on Wednesday (12/1), the small-cap Russell 2,000 had fallen 12.1% from its recent high on November 8th, leaving the index in 'correction' territory. A market 'correction' is a drop of 10%+ that was preceded by a rally of at least 10% on a closing basis. This correction for the Russell 2,000 is its 58th since data for the index begins in 1978. Below is a table showing prior corrections for the Russell. The average correction sees the index fall 18.35%, which is just shy of the 20% threshold for a 'bear market.' The median correction is a little smaller at -15.4%. In terms of length, the average Russell correction has lasted 73 days, while the median is 62 days. For the current Russell 2,000 correction to reach average levels, it would need to fall another 7% from here, and it would come to an end on January 20th, 2022.
In terms of extremes, the biggest correction that the Russell 2,000 has ever experienced was the 41.9% decline seen during the initial COVID Crash from 1/16/20 to 3/18/20. The longest correction lasted 397 days from 6/24/83 to 7/25/84. In terms of the shortest correction, there were two that lasted 3 days. One of those came during the Financial Crisis while the other happened last June.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

December typically starts out weak as tax-loss selling ramps up and with the big gains this year we would expect that early December weakness to materialize. Then as you can see in the typical December chart here stocks begin to takeoff around mid-month led by small caps and the Russell 2000.
This is what used to be known as the “January Effect:” small caps outperforming large caps in the month of January. Nowadays most of the so-called January Effect takes place in the last half of December (2021 Almanac pages 110 & 112, 2022 pages 112 & 114). The January Effect is not to be confused with the January Barometer (2021 Almanac page 16, 2022 page 18), which states as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
December is the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the second-best Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not all that likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen post-election years, December’s ranking slip to #7 S&P 500, #7 NASDAQ and DJIA #5. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, tend to have a field day in post-election-year Decembers. Since 1981, the Russell 2000 has lost ground three time in ten post-election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 2.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 27 and lasts until the second trading day of 2022. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Here comes December, historically a pretty solid month for stocks, but now we have the Omicron variant wreaking havoc on markets. “What a difference a week makes. A week ago stocks were at all-time highs and the economy was strong. Now all we have are uncertainties and questions,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “As of now we’re optimistic that stocks will sidestep the new variant worries, but we recommend investors buckle up their seatbelts, as the end of 2021 could be a bumpy one.”
Here are six things to think about as we head into the jolliest month of them all.
First, historically, the S&P 500 Index has gained 1.5% on average in December, which is the third best month of the year with only April and November better. But as you can see here, over the past 10 years, December has been much weaker. Of course, much of this was due to a huge 9.2% drop in 2018 (which we’ll get to soon enough).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Second, some more good news is December has been up 74.3% of the time, more than any other month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

drop in 2018. Only once in history was December the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 and it was indeed in 2018. Three times it was the second worst month of the year, in 1968, 1980, and 1996. The worst monthly return so far this year was a 4.8% drop in September.
Fourth, stocks usually don’t get moving until the second half of the month, right as the holiday good feel vibes start to come out.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Fifth, this year is in rare air, as all 11 months have made a new all-time high so far. Should the S&P 500 make new highs in December that would be a perfect 12 for 12, matching 2014 as the only years to complete this incredible feat.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sixth, as we show in the LPL Chart of the Day, it turns out that when stocks are up more than 20% for the year heading into December (like 2021), the final month actually does better, up 1.7% versus 1.5%. Also, it has been higher eight of the past nine times the year was up more than 20% heading into the final month.

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The domestic economy added just 210,000 jobs during November, well below Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus forecast for a gain of 550,000 and below October’s revised tally of 546,000. The net revision to prior months was positive but only by 82,000.
The modest 23,000 gain in leisure and hospitality jobs, which were up 170,000 in October, and a 20,000 drop in retail jobs don’t make much sense given solid retail sales data of late. That could set up a positive reversal from revisions next month, though that potential bump will play some tug-of-war with the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which came after the November survey period ended.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, for the past four months the pace of job gains has been well below the pre-Delta variant levels of near 1 million back in June and July. However, there are a number of reasons to be optimistic that job growth picks up in early 2022, assuming the Omicron variant doesn’t get in the way.
“The job growth number is disappointing, no doubt, especially considering the survey period fell before we even know the name of the newest Covid-19 variant,” noted LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While Omicron may curb hiring a bit over the next month or two, we remain confident in our expectation for strong job gains and above-average growth in the U.S. economy in 2022.”

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The story was clearly better when looking at the unemployment rate, derived from the household survey rather than from employers. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.6% to 4.2% in November as workers—in an encouraging sign—came off the sidelines (1.14 million of them), lifting the participation rate by 0.2% to 61.8%, a post-recession high but still well off pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation data also painted a somewhat reassuring picture. The year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings rose less than expected at 4.8% (+0.3% month over month), below consensus expectations of 5.0% and 0.4%, and not enough to keep up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period. It’s reasonable to conclude that the increase in labor participation helped limit wage increases, but we have a long way to go there still. The labor market is still 3.9 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market remains under-supplied, as noted above. In other words, further improvement in participation will still be needed to help contain inflation pressure.
Some will argue that this report will make the Federal Reserve (Fed) think twice before accelerating tapering of its bond purchases, but we’re not so sure.
“There were a number of positives with this jobs report,” explained LPL Financial Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum. “Labor force participation increased and the unemployment rate fell—both of which point to a continued strong jobs market. That may give the Fed reasons to speed up its tapering plans.”
Overall, this report is a disappointing reminder that we’re going to have to wait longer for the booming jobs numbers that we still expect to see. We continue to expect more people to get back to work in the months ahead, in an environment of strong labor demand, which can help alleviate wage pressure and firm up the economic growth outlook. Omicron is a risk but based on the information we have today, we do not expect that variant, or any others, to meaningfully slow the job market recovery in 2022.

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

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([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

• ($CHPT $GME $LULU $CHWY $COST $AZO $RH $SAIC $LOVE $AVGO $DLHC $PATH $COUP $MDB $ASO $DBI $THO $ORCL $PLAY $CBP $SFIX $HRL $S $CONN $SUMO $SOL $UNFI $KFY $GTLB $CIEN $ALCO $PD $TOL $HQY $CASY $CNM $VRA $GEF $JW.A $ALOT $PLAB $AOUT)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

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ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $63.02 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $60.00 million to $65.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 35.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% below its 200 day moving average of $24.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,258 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

GameStop Corp. (GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.22 per share on revenue of $1.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 58.49% with revenue increasing by 18.44%. Short interest has decreased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% below its 200 day moving average of $185.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,239 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 17.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.3% move in recent quarters.

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.33 to $1.38 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.83% with revenue increasing by 27.97%. Short interest has increased by 6.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.1% above its 200 day moving average of $371.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 552 contracts of the $490.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 24.02%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% below its 200 day moving average of $78.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 there was some notable buying of 6,763 contracts of the $65.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 16.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.59 per share on revenue of $49.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.10% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.1% above its 200 day moving average of $416.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,073 contracts of the $550.00 call and 2,087 contracts of the $550.00 put expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $20.83 per share on revenue of $3.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $22.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.93% with revenue increasing by 5.89%. Short interest has increased by 22.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.6% above its 200 day moving average of $1,544.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.69 per share on revenue of $985.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.90% with revenue increasing by 16.73%. Short interest has increased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.5% below its 200 day moving average of $635.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 17, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,250 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, December 6, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.88 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.49% with revenue increasing by 3.41%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $88.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.40 per share on revenue of $112.19 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.28) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 350.00% with revenue increasing by 50.10%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $68.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.3% move in recent quarters.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $7.74 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 86% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.08% with revenue increasing by 13.81%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $483.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $560.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.9% move in recent quarters.

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets. :)
submitted bybigbear0083tosmallstreetbets [link][comments]

2021.12.04 04:54 bigbear0083Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021.

Volatility could continue to plague markets after a week of violent swings that sent many stocks plummeting.
In the week ahead, investors await more news on the omicron Covid variant and another inflation report Friday that is expected to show consumer prices remain the hottest in three decades.
In the past week, stocks sold off on worries about the omicron variant and concerns the Federal Reserve will move away from its easy policies and raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Congressional panel Tuesday that the central bank will consider speeding up the taper of its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program when it meets Dec. 14 and 15. The Federal Reserve put its bond-purchasing program in place in early 2020 to prop up the economy during the pandemic.
“It’s going to be a somewhat turbulent December because we probably need to wait for earnings season to get regrounded, back to fundamentals,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset. “For as high as a lot of the ratios would suggest, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, when you throw it into the hopper with interest rates and everything else, things aren’t that bad. I don’t think we’re teetering on the edge of a cliff.”
But Ablin did say the comments from Powell were unnerving investors, who fear the Fed will also speed up interest rate hikes. Powell acknowledged he was wrong about inflation being “transitory,” or temporary, spooking investors. The bond purchases are now scheduled to end in June.
“I’m not sure what investors’ read on inflation is. Do they think the Fed is going to raise rates, get ahead of it too early and everything is going to roll over? Ever since Powell took ‘transitory’ out of his talk, investors have been somewhat off balance,” said Ablin.
The consumer price index or CPI for November is expected Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones predict it rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, or 6.7% year over year. That compares to a 0.9% gain in October, and a 6.2% jump year over year, the biggest move in three decades.
High fliers and growth were among the hardest hit Friday, as investors bailed out of some of the riskiest stocks. As stocks plunged Friday, Treasury yields fell. Yields move opposite price, and the move was seen as a flight to safety. The 10-year note yield fell to 1.35%.
The ARK Innovation ETF was down nearly 12.7% for the week. Most of the growth names in the fund plunged into bear market territory. “I think investors have to keep in mind that’s not a 15-week strategy. It’s a 15-year strategy, as far as we’re concerned,” Ablin said.
For the week, the small cap Russell 2000 was down nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 was off just 1.2%. The worst performing major sector for the week was communications services, which includes internet companies. It was down 2.8%, followed by consumer discretionary, off 2.4%. Financials lost nearly 2%, and the S&P technology sector was down 0.4% for the week. But on Friday, tech lost 1.7%.
The Federal Reserve should be quiet in the week ahead. Fed officials traditionally do not make major speeches in the blackout period, which is the coming week, ahead of their Dec. 14 and 15 meeting. One exception is Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who speaks Thursday at the Center for Indian Country Development Research Summit.
Much of the focus will be on how the market itself is performing.
“Ever since the Nov. 22 outside bearish day, all strength has been sold with lots of damage underneath the hood,” said Scott Redler of T3Live.com. “Now finally some of the leadership names are showing faulty action.” He noted that both Microsoft and Apple were weaker.
“Money is not hiding in Amazon, Google, or Facebook. They haven’t been special for weeks,” he said.
The S&P closed below its 50-day moving average Friday, after closing below it Wednesday. The 50-day is at 4,544. That’s a signal to some market technicians that the index is on the verge of breaking down. The 50-day moving average is the average closing price over the past 50 days, and is viewed as a momentum indicator.
“Basically, it’s effectively a retest of support because we had the relief rally [Thursday],” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. She said the S&P 500 needs to close below the 50-day for two consecutive days before the move is considered a breakdown.
“The action in the high growth, high multiple names is not a good sign,” said Stockton. “We do have some signs of downside exhaustion but not as widespread as I would hope. We’re seeing some of the heavyweights, like Adobe for example, taking out levels like the 50-day moving averages.” She said some of those big names have now joined the selling.
“We’re just watching how bad it gets. Monday is going to be the tell,” said Stockton. “That also gives it the weekend to settle... Extremes have gotten a little bit more extreme. Sentiment is the most oversold from a contrarian perspective since the October low.”

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

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At the close on Wednesday (12/1), the small-cap Russell 2,000 had fallen 12.1% from its recent high on November 8th, leaving the index in 'correction' territory. A market 'correction' is a drop of 10%+ that was preceded by a rally of at least 10% on a closing basis. This correction for the Russell 2,000 is its 58th since data for the index begins in 1978. Below is a table showing prior corrections for the Russell. The average correction sees the index fall 18.35%, which is just shy of the 20% threshold for a 'bear market.' The median correction is a little smaller at -15.4%. In terms of length, the average Russell correction has lasted 73 days, while the median is 62 days. For the current Russell 2,000 correction to reach average levels, it would need to fall another 7% from here, and it would come to an end on January 20th, 2022.
In terms of extremes, the biggest correction that the Russell 2,000 has ever experienced was the 41.9% decline seen during the initial COVID Crash from 1/16/20 to 3/18/20. The longest correction lasted 397 days from 6/24/83 to 7/25/84. In terms of the shortest correction, there were two that lasted 3 days. One of those came during the Financial Crisis while the other happened last June.

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December typically starts out weak as tax-loss selling ramps up and with the big gains this year we would expect that early December weakness to materialize. Then as you can see in the typical December chart here stocks begin to takeoff around mid-month led by small caps and the Russell 2000.
This is what used to be known as the “January Effect:” small caps outperforming large caps in the month of January. Nowadays most of the so-called January Effect takes place in the last half of December (2021 Almanac pages 110 & 112, 2022 pages 112 & 114). The January Effect is not to be confused with the January Barometer (2021 Almanac page 16, 2022 page 18), which states as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.

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Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
December is the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the second-best Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not all that likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen post-election years, December’s ranking slip to #7 S&P 500, #7 NASDAQ and DJIA #5. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, tend to have a field day in post-election-year Decembers. Since 1981, the Russell 2000 has lost ground three time in ten post-election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 2.2%.

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Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 27 and lasts until the second trading day of 2022. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Here comes December, historically a pretty solid month for stocks, but now we have the Omicron variant wreaking havoc on markets. “What a difference a week makes. A week ago stocks were at all-time highs and the economy was strong. Now all we have are uncertainties and questions,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “As of now we’re optimistic that stocks will sidestep the new variant worries, but we recommend investors buckle up their seatbelts, as the end of 2021 could be a bumpy one.”
Here are six things to think about as we head into the jolliest month of them all.
First, historically, the S&P 500 Index has gained 1.5% on average in December, which is the third best month of the year with only April and November better. But as you can see here, over the past 10 years, December has been much weaker. Of course, much of this was due to a huge 9.2% drop in 2018 (which we’ll get to soon enough).

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Second, some more good news is December has been up 74.3% of the time, more than any other month of the year.

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drop in 2018. Only once in history was December the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 and it was indeed in 2018. Three times it was the second worst month of the year, in 1968, 1980, and 1996. The worst monthly return so far this year was a 4.8% drop in September.
Fourth, stocks usually don’t get moving until the second half of the month, right as the holiday good feel vibes start to come out.

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Fifth, this year is in rare air, as all 11 months have made a new all-time high so far. Should the S&P 500 make new highs in December that would be a perfect 12 for 12, matching 2014 as the only years to complete this incredible feat.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sixth, as we show in the LPL Chart of the Day, it turns out that when stocks are up more than 20% for the year heading into December (like 2021), the final month actually does better, up 1.7% versus 1.5%. Also, it has been higher eight of the past nine times the year was up more than 20% heading into the final month.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The domestic economy added just 210,000 jobs during November, well below Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus forecast for a gain of 550,000 and below October’s revised tally of 546,000. The net revision to prior months was positive but only by 82,000.
The modest 23,000 gain in leisure and hospitality jobs, which were up 170,000 in October, and a 20,000 drop in retail jobs don’t make much sense given solid retail sales data of late. That could set up a positive reversal from revisions next month, though that potential bump will play some tug-of-war with the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which came after the November survey period ended.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, for the past four months the pace of job gains has been well below the pre-Delta variant levels of near 1 million back in June and July. However, there are a number of reasons to be optimistic that job growth picks up in early 2022, assuming the Omicron variant doesn’t get in the way.
“The job growth number is disappointing, no doubt, especially considering the survey period fell before we even know the name of the newest Covid-19 variant,” noted LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While Omicron may curb hiring a bit over the next month or two, we remain confident in our expectation for strong job gains and above-average growth in the U.S. economy in 2022.”

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The story was clearly better when looking at the unemployment rate, derived from the household survey rather than from employers. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.6% to 4.2% in November as workers—in an encouraging sign—came off the sidelines (1.14 million of them), lifting the participation rate by 0.2% to 61.8%, a post-recession high but still well off pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation data also painted a somewhat reassuring picture. The year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings rose less than expected at 4.8% (+0.3% month over month), below consensus expectations of 5.0% and 0.4%, and not enough to keep up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period. It’s reasonable to conclude that the increase in labor participation helped limit wage increases, but we have a long way to go there still. The labor market is still 3.9 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market remains under-supplied, as noted above. In other words, further improvement in participation will still be needed to help contain inflation pressure.
Some will argue that this report will make the Federal Reserve (Fed) think twice before accelerating tapering of its bond purchases, but we’re not so sure.
“There were a number of positives with this jobs report,” explained LPL Financial Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum. “Labor force participation increased and the unemployment rate fell—both of which point to a continued strong jobs market. That may give the Fed reasons to speed up its tapering plans.”
Overall, this report is a disappointing reminder that we’re going to have to wait longer for the booming jobs numbers that we still expect to see. We continue to expect more people to get back to work in the months ahead, in an environment of strong labor demand, which can help alleviate wage pressure and firm up the economic growth outlook. Omicron is a risk but based on the information we have today, we do not expect that variant, or any others, to meaningfully slow the job market recovery in 2022.

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

• ($CHPT $GME $LULU $CHWY $COST $AZO $RH $SAIC $LOVE $AVGO $DLHC $PATH $COUP $MDB $ASO $DBI $THO $ORCL $PLAY $CBP $SFIX $HRL $S $CONN $SUMO $SOL $UNFI $KFY $GTLB $CIEN $ALCO $PD $TOL $HQY $CASY $CNM $VRA $GEF $JW.A $ALOT $PLAB $AOUT)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

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ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $63.02 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $60.00 million to $65.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 35.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% below its 200 day moving average of $24.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,258 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

GameStop Corp. (GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.22 per share on revenue of $1.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 58.49% with revenue increasing by 18.44%. Short interest has decreased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% below its 200 day moving average of $185.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,239 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 17.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.3% move in recent quarters.

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.33 to $1.38 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.83% with revenue increasing by 27.97%. Short interest has increased by 6.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.1% above its 200 day moving average of $371.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 552 contracts of the $490.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 24.02%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% below its 200 day moving average of $78.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 there was some notable buying of 6,763 contracts of the $65.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 16.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.59 per share on revenue of $49.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.10% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.1% above its 200 day moving average of $416.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,073 contracts of the $550.00 call and 2,087 contracts of the $550.00 put expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $20.83 per share on revenue of $3.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $22.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.93% with revenue increasing by 5.89%. Short interest has increased by 22.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.6% above its 200 day moving average of $1,544.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.69 per share on revenue of $985.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.90% with revenue increasing by 16.73%. Short interest has increased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.5% below its 200 day moving average of $635.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 17, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,250 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, December 6, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.88 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.49% with revenue increasing by 3.41%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $88.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.40 per share on revenue of $112.19 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.28) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 350.00% with revenue increasing by 50.10%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $68.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.3% move in recent quarters.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $7.74 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 86% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.08% with revenue increasing by 13.81%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $483.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $560.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.9% move in recent quarters.

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket. :)
submitted bybigbear0083toStockMarket [link][comments]

2021.12.04 04:52 bigbear0083Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 6th, 2021.

Volatility could continue to plague markets after a week of violent swings that sent many stocks plummeting.
In the week ahead, investors await more news on the omicron Covid variant and another inflation report Friday that is expected to show consumer prices remain the hottest in three decades.
In the past week, stocks sold off on worries about the omicron variant and concerns the Federal Reserve will move away from its easy policies and raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Congressional panel Tuesday that the central bank will consider speeding up the taper of its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program when it meets Dec. 14 and 15. The Federal Reserve put its bond-purchasing program in place in early 2020 to prop up the economy during the pandemic.
“It’s going to be a somewhat turbulent December because we probably need to wait for earnings season to get regrounded, back to fundamentals,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset. “For as high as a lot of the ratios would suggest, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, when you throw it into the hopper with interest rates and everything else, things aren’t that bad. I don’t think we’re teetering on the edge of a cliff.”
But Ablin did say the comments from Powell were unnerving investors, who fear the Fed will also speed up interest rate hikes. Powell acknowledged he was wrong about inflation being “transitory,” or temporary, spooking investors. The bond purchases are now scheduled to end in June.
“I’m not sure what investors’ read on inflation is. Do they think the Fed is going to raise rates, get ahead of it too early and everything is going to roll over? Ever since Powell took ‘transitory’ out of his talk, investors have been somewhat off balance,” said Ablin.
The consumer price index or CPI for November is expected Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones predict it rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, or 6.7% year over year. That compares to a 0.9% gain in October, and a 6.2% jump year over year, the biggest move in three decades.
High fliers and growth were among the hardest hit Friday, as investors bailed out of some of the riskiest stocks. As stocks plunged Friday, Treasury yields fell. Yields move opposite price, and the move was seen as a flight to safety. The 10-year note yield fell to 1.35%.
The ARK Innovation ETF was down nearly 12.7% for the week. Most of the growth names in the fund plunged into bear market territory. “I think investors have to keep in mind that’s not a 15-week strategy. It’s a 15-year strategy, as far as we’re concerned,” Ablin said.
For the week, the small cap Russell 2000 was down nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 was off just 1.2%. The worst performing major sector for the week was communications services, which includes internet companies. It was down 2.8%, followed by consumer discretionary, off 2.4%. Financials lost nearly 2%, and the S&P technology sector was down 0.4% for the week. But on Friday, tech lost 1.7%.
The Federal Reserve should be quiet in the week ahead. Fed officials traditionally do not make major speeches in the blackout period, which is the coming week, ahead of their Dec. 14 and 15 meeting. One exception is Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who speaks Thursday at the Center for Indian Country Development Research Summit.
Much of the focus will be on how the market itself is performing.
“Ever since the Nov. 22 outside bearish day, all strength has been sold with lots of damage underneath the hood,” said Scott Redler of T3Live.com. “Now finally some of the leadership names are showing faulty action.” He noted that both Microsoft and Apple were weaker.
“Money is not hiding in Amazon, Google, or Facebook. They haven’t been special for weeks,” he said.
The S&P closed below its 50-day moving average Friday, after closing below it Wednesday. The 50-day is at 4,544. That’s a signal to some market technicians that the index is on the verge of breaking down. The 50-day moving average is the average closing price over the past 50 days, and is viewed as a momentum indicator.
“Basically, it’s effectively a retest of support because we had the relief rally [Thursday],” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. She said the S&P 500 needs to close below the 50-day for two consecutive days before the move is considered a breakdown.
“The action in the high growth, high multiple names is not a good sign,” said Stockton. “We do have some signs of downside exhaustion but not as widespread as I would hope. We’re seeing some of the heavyweights, like Adobe for example, taking out levels like the 50-day moving averages.” She said some of those big names have now joined the selling.
“We’re just watching how bad it gets. Monday is going to be the tell,” said Stockton. “That also gives it the weekend to settle... Extremes have gotten a little bit more extreme. Sentiment is the most oversold from a contrarian perspective since the October low.”

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

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At the close on Wednesday (12/1), the small-cap Russell 2,000 had fallen 12.1% from its recent high on November 8th, leaving the index in 'correction' territory. A market 'correction' is a drop of 10%+ that was preceded by a rally of at least 10% on a closing basis. This correction for the Russell 2,000 is its 58th since data for the index begins in 1978. Below is a table showing prior corrections for the Russell. The average correction sees the index fall 18.35%, which is just shy of the 20% threshold for a 'bear market.' The median correction is a little smaller at -15.4%. In terms of length, the average Russell correction has lasted 73 days, while the median is 62 days. For the current Russell 2,000 correction to reach average levels, it would need to fall another 7% from here, and it would come to an end on January 20th, 2022.
In terms of extremes, the biggest correction that the Russell 2,000 has ever experienced was the 41.9% decline seen during the initial COVID Crash from 1/16/20 to 3/18/20. The longest correction lasted 397 days from 6/24/83 to 7/25/84. In terms of the shortest correction, there were two that lasted 3 days. One of those came during the Financial Crisis while the other happened last June.

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December typically starts out weak as tax-loss selling ramps up and with the big gains this year we would expect that early December weakness to materialize. Then as you can see in the typical December chart here stocks begin to takeoff around mid-month led by small caps and the Russell 2000.
This is what used to be known as the “January Effect:” small caps outperforming large caps in the month of January. Nowadays most of the so-called January Effect takes place in the last half of December (2021 Almanac pages 110 & 112, 2022 pages 112 & 114). The January Effect is not to be confused with the January Barometer (2021 Almanac page 16, 2022 page 18), which states as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.

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Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
December is the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the second-best Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not all that likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen post-election years, December’s ranking slip to #7 S&P 500, #7 NASDAQ and DJIA #5. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, tend to have a field day in post-election-year Decembers. Since 1981, the Russell 2000 has lost ground three time in ten post-election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 2.2%.

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Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 27 and lasts until the second trading day of 2022. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Here comes December, historically a pretty solid month for stocks, but now we have the Omicron variant wreaking havoc on markets. “What a difference a week makes. A week ago stocks were at all-time highs and the economy was strong. Now all we have are uncertainties and questions,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “As of now we’re optimistic that stocks will sidestep the new variant worries, but we recommend investors buckle up their seatbelts, as the end of 2021 could be a bumpy one.”
Here are six things to think about as we head into the jolliest month of them all.
First, historically, the S&P 500 Index has gained 1.5% on average in December, which is the third best month of the year with only April and November better. But as you can see here, over the past 10 years, December has been much weaker. Of course, much of this was due to a huge 9.2% drop in 2018 (which we’ll get to soon enough).

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Second, some more good news is December has been up 74.3% of the time, more than any other month of the year.

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drop in 2018. Only once in history was December the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 and it was indeed in 2018. Three times it was the second worst month of the year, in 1968, 1980, and 1996. The worst monthly return so far this year was a 4.8% drop in September.
Fourth, stocks usually don’t get moving until the second half of the month, right as the holiday good feel vibes start to come out.

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Fifth, this year is in rare air, as all 11 months have made a new all-time high so far. Should the S&P 500 make new highs in December that would be a perfect 12 for 12, matching 2014 as the only years to complete this incredible feat.

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Sixth, as we show in the LPL Chart of the Day, it turns out that when stocks are up more than 20% for the year heading into December (like 2021), the final month actually does better, up 1.7% versus 1.5%. Also, it has been higher eight of the past nine times the year was up more than 20% heading into the final month.

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The domestic economy added just 210,000 jobs during November, well below Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus forecast for a gain of 550,000 and below October’s revised tally of 546,000. The net revision to prior months was positive but only by 82,000.
The modest 23,000 gain in leisure and hospitality jobs, which were up 170,000 in October, and a 20,000 drop in retail jobs don’t make much sense given solid retail sales data of late. That could set up a positive reversal from revisions next month, though that potential bump will play some tug-of-war with the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which came after the November survey period ended.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, for the past four months the pace of job gains has been well below the pre-Delta variant levels of near 1 million back in June and July. However, there are a number of reasons to be optimistic that job growth picks up in early 2022, assuming the Omicron variant doesn’t get in the way.
“The job growth number is disappointing, no doubt, especially considering the survey period fell before we even know the name of the newest Covid-19 variant,” noted LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While Omicron may curb hiring a bit over the next month or two, we remain confident in our expectation for strong job gains and above-average growth in the U.S. economy in 2022.”

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The story was clearly better when looking at the unemployment rate, derived from the household survey rather than from employers. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.6% to 4.2% in November as workers—in an encouraging sign—came off the sidelines (1.14 million of them), lifting the participation rate by 0.2% to 61.8%, a post-recession high but still well off pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation data also painted a somewhat reassuring picture. The year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings rose less than expected at 4.8% (+0.3% month over month), below consensus expectations of 5.0% and 0.4%, and not enough to keep up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period. It’s reasonable to conclude that the increase in labor participation helped limit wage increases, but we have a long way to go there still. The labor market is still 3.9 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels and the labor market remains under-supplied, as noted above. In other words, further improvement in participation will still be needed to help contain inflation pressure.
Some will argue that this report will make the Federal Reserve (Fed) think twice before accelerating tapering of its bond purchases, but we’re not so sure.
“There were a number of positives with this jobs report,” explained LPL Financial Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum. “Labor force participation increased and the unemployment rate fell—both of which point to a continued strong jobs market. That may give the Fed reasons to speed up its tapering plans.”
Overall, this report is a disappointing reminder that we’re going to have to wait longer for the booming jobs numbers that we still expect to see. We continue to expect more people to get back to work in the months ahead, in an environment of strong labor demand, which can help alleviate wage pressure and firm up the economic growth outlook. Omicron is a risk but based on the information we have today, we do not expect that variant, or any others, to meaningfully slow the job market recovery in 2022.

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

• ($CHPT $GME $LULU $CHWY $COST $AZO $RH $SAIC $LOVE $AVGO $DLHC $PATH $COUP $MDB $ASO $DBI $THO $ORCL $PLAY $CBP $SFIX $HRL $S $CONN $SUMO $SOL $UNFI $KFY $GTLB $CIEN $ALCO $PD $TOL $HQY $CASY $CNM $VRA $GEF $JW.A $ALOT $PLAB $AOUT)

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Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

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(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

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ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $63.02 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $60.00 million to $65.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 35.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% below its 200 day moving average of $24.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,258 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.

GameStop Corp. (GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.22 per share on revenue of $1.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 58.49% with revenue increasing by 18.44%. Short interest has decreased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% below its 200 day moving average of $185.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,239 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 17.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.3% move in recent quarters.

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.33 to $1.38 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.83% with revenue increasing by 27.97%. Short interest has increased by 6.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.1% above its 200 day moving average of $371.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 552 contracts of the $490.00 call expiring on Friday, December 10, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 24.02%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% below its 200 day moving average of $78.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 there was some notable buying of 6,763 contracts of the $65.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 16.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.59 per share on revenue of $49.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.10% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.1% above its 200 day moving average of $416.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 29, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,073 contracts of the $550.00 call and 2,087 contracts of the $550.00 put expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $20.83 per share on revenue of $3.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $22.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.93% with revenue increasing by 5.89%. Short interest has increased by 22.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.6% above its 200 day moving average of $1,544.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.69 per share on revenue of $985.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.90% with revenue increasing by 16.73%. Short interest has increased by 2.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.5% below its 200 day moving average of $635.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 17, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,250 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, December 6, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.88 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.49% with revenue increasing by 3.41%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $88.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 8, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.40 per share on revenue of $112.19 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.28) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 350.00% with revenue increasing by 50.10%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $68.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.3% move in recent quarters.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 9, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $7.74 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 86% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.08% with revenue increasing by 13.81%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $483.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $560.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.9% move in recent quarters.

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted bybigbear0083toStockMarketChat [link][comments]

2021.12.03 00:23 Winth0rpEncyclopædia Britannica: The Imperial Depression (Alternate titles: The Great Depression, Depression of 1936)

The Imperial Depression, worldwide economic downturn that began in 1936 and lasted until about 1940. It was the most severe depression ever experienced by the industrialized world, sparking fundamental changes in economic institutions, macroeconomic policy, and economic theory. Although it originated in the German Empire, the Great Depression caused drastic declines in output, severe unemployment, and acute deflation in almost every most countries of the world, with only the Syndicalist revolutionary governments of the Third International being largely spared. Its social and cultural effects were no less staggering, especially in the Germany, where the Imperial Depression represented the harshest peacetime adversity faced by Germans since the formation of the Empire in 1871.
Economic history
The timing and severity of the Imperial Depression varied substantially across countries. The Depression was particularly long and severe in Central Europe and especially the United States, which was still recovering from an unrelated economic depression that started in 1925; it was milder in Japan and much of the British Commonwealth. Perhaps not surprisingly, the worst depression ever experienced by the world economy stemmed from a multitude of causes. Global instability outbreaks of political violence in eastern Europe, subsequent reductions in international trade and investment, and misguided government policies caused economic output to fall in the German Empire, while the gold standard, which linked nearly all the countries of the world in a network of fixed currency exchange rates, played a key role in transmitting the German downturn to other countries. The recovery from the Great Depression was initially spurred by the revaluation of the Reichsmark against gold and the ensuing monetary expansion, and ultimately completed due to mobilization and increased military spending following the outbreak of the Second Weltkrieg. The economic impact of the Imperial Depression was enormous, including both extreme human suffering and profound changes in economic policy.

Timing and severity

The Imperial Depression began in the German Empire as a marked slowing of economic growth in the fall of 1935. The downturn became markedly worse, however, in early 1936 and continued until late 1938. Real output and prices fell precipitously. Between the peak and the trough of the downturn, industrial production in the German Empire declined 54 percent and real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 35 percent. The wholesale price index declined 37 percent (such declines in the price level are referred to as deflation). Although there is some debate about the reliability of the statistics, it is widely agreed that the unemployment rate exceeded 25 percent at its highest point. The severity of the Imperial Depression in the German Empire becomes especially clear when it is compared with Germany’s next worst recession, the Great Recession of 2006–10, during which the country’s real GDP declined just 5.8 percent and the unemployment rate peaked at less than 15 percent.
The Depression affected virtually every country of the world. However, the dates and magnitude of the downturn varied substantially across countries. The Dominion of Canada struggled with low growth and recession during through 1938, though this was offset somewhat by the continued influx of capital from the British Diaspora and continued rearmament in preparation for the planned Reclamation War. The country did not slip into severe depression, however, and its peak-to-trough decline in industrial production was roughly one-fifth that of the German Empire. Russia also experienced a relatively short downturn in early 1936. The Russian recovery in 1937 was spurred in part by its nationalization of previously German held industries, and a new abilitiy to ignore disadvantageous treaties in the face of German weakness. America’s economy slipped into a downturn early in 1925 and then stabilized before turning down again in the aftermath of Black Monday in 1936. The decline in American industrial production was roughly equal to that in the German Empire. A number of countries in Eastern and Southern Europe fell into depression in early 1936, which resulted in a wide variety of political and economic reforms. While some less-developed countries experienced severe depressions, others, such Brazil, experienced comparatively mild downturns. Japan also experienced a mild depression, which began relatively late and ended relatively early.
The German recovery began in the summer of 1937. Output grew rapidly through 1939: real GDP rose at an average rate of 8.5 percent per year between 1937 and 1939. Output had fallen so deeply in the early 1936, however, that it remained substantially below its long-run trend path throughout this period. In March of 1939 the German Empire suffered another severe downturn, but following the outbreak of war in September 1939 the German economy grew even more rapidly than in the late-1930s. The country’s output finally returned to its long-run trend path in 1941.
Recovery in the rest of the world varied greatly. The American economy stopped declining soon after the passage of the Garner-Wagner Bill in early 1936, although genuine recovery did not begin until the beginning of Reconstruction following the conclusion of the Second American Civil War. The economies of a number of Eastern European countries began to strengthen in late 1937 and early 1938. Russia and Japan both began to recover in the fall of 1936. Canada and the constituent nations of the Austrian Empire started to revive at about the same time as the United States, midway through 1937. On the other hand, China and the German Pacific Holdings, which were severely affected by reductions in German government spending, did not firmly enter the recovery phase until 1939.

Stock market crash

The fundamental cause of the Great Depression in the Germany Empire was a decline in spending (sometimes referred to as aggregate demand), which led to a decline in production as manufacturers and merchandisers noticed an unintended rise in inventories. The sources of the contraction in spending in the German Empire varied over the course of the Depression, but they cumulated in a monumental decline in aggregate demand. The German decline was transmitted to the rest of the world largely through the gold standard. However, a variety of other factors also influenced the downturn in various countries.
The initial decline in German output in the fall of 1935 is widely believed to have stemmed from the momentum of the Tirpitzjahre reaching its natural conclusion. The 1920s had been an exceptional boom period; prices had remained nearly constant throughout the decade, and there had no recessions since the elections of 1923. The one obvious area of excess was government spending, and subsequent reliance on increasing tax receipts to ensure continued growth. Government expenditures had not been reduced from the levels seen during the Great War, which military spending being replaced with an enlarged social safety net and infrastructure investments in Mitteleuropa and the newly acquired colonial holdings. As these internal projects neared completion, raising the prospect of large numbers of unemployed laborers, the Reichstag began to provide incentives for investors to increase presence in new markets, particularly Russia and China. The increased profits to be gained in financial speculation led to a subsequent decrease in investment in domestic consumer production and construction. Some scholars believe that this shift in focus coupled with a boom in housing construction in the mid-1920s led to an excess supply of housing and a particularly large drop in construction in 1933 and 1935.
By the fall of 1935, German stock prices had reached levels that could not be justified by reasonable anticipations of future earnings. As a result, when the assassination of Russian liberal politician Viktor Chernov caused uncertainty in the future of the Russian Republic as a stable target for investment, investors lost confidence and the stock market bubble burst. Panic selling began on “Black Monday,” February 3rd, 1936. Many stocks had been purchased on margin—that is, using loans secured by only a small fraction of the stocks’ value. As a result, the price declines forced some investors to liquidate their holdings, thus exacerbating the fall in prices. Between their peak in September and their low in November, German stock prices (measured by the Cowles Index) declined 37 percent. Because the decline was so dramatic, this event is often referred to as the Great Crash of 1936.
The stock market crash reduced German aggregate demand substantially. Consumer purchases of durable goods and business investment fell sharply after the crash. A likely explanation is that the financial crisis generated considerable uncertainty about future income, which in turn led consumers and firms to put off purchases of durable goods. Although the loss of wealth caused by the decline in stock prices was relatively small, the crash may also have depressed spending by making people feel poorer (see consumer confidence). As a result of the drastic decline in consumer and business spending, real output in the German Empire, which had been declining slowly up to this point, fell rapidly in mid-1936 and throughout 1937. Thus, while the Great Crash of the stock market and the Imperial Depression are two quite separate events, the decline in stock prices was one factor contributing to declines in production and employment in the German Empire.

Banking panics and government action

The Depression likely would have spiraled further out of control, had the government not taken immediate action in the aftermath of Black Monday. Within two days of the crash, when it became apparent that the crash was not a brief correction in prices, Reichskanzler Franz von Papen ordered that the government take over management of factories designated “essential for national defense”, citing a law dating back to the Weltkrieg. This action ensured that at risk factories, which are estimated to have made up over 25 percent of all German industrial output, to remain open and continue providing wages to their employees, as any loses would be taken by the government. This effort to ensure continued cash-flow to working class Germans was aimed and offsetting a banking panic that had begun in the aftermath of Black Monday. A banking panic arises when many depositors simultaneously lose confidence in the solvency of banks and demand that their bank deposits be paid to them in cash. Banks, which typically hold only a fraction of deposits as cash reserves, must liquidate loans in order to raise the required cash. This process of hasty liquidation can cause even a previously solvent bank to fail. The panic following the crash was forestalled with a national “bank holiday” declared by Kaiser Wilhelm on March 6, 1936. The bank holiday closed all banks, and they were permitted to reopen only after being deemed solvent by government inspectors. Without this holiday, the panics may have been disastrous to the German banking system. Even with rapid action, one in ten German banks in existence at the end of 1935 had failed.
Despite these initial actions to forestall collapse, it rapidly became clear that Germany would not recover without expansive reforms to its economic, fiscal, and governmental structures. Economists Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, in the classic study A Monetary History of the German Empire, 1871–1960 (1963), argued that the appointment of Wilhelm Groener as State Secretary for Economic Affairs in April 1936, while controversial at the time, was a critical first step in this reformation. Groener was a forceful leader who understood that despite the initial nationalization of industry being a necessary step to manage unemployment, it was not sustainable in the long term. His decision to liquidate the least profitable businesses in the German industrial sector, despite causing an initial uptick in unemployment, allowed the government to be more targeted in its actions and assured a more rapid recovery amongst the surviving industry. More controversial was his willingness to severely cut social spending in an effort to limit deficits, which caused a severe decline in available spending money among the general population. This decision would have long term political consequences, leading directly to the victory of the SPD coalition in the 1937 elections, and their subsequent cuts to military spending in an attempt to restore social spending to previous levels.

The gold standard

Some economists believe that these spending cuts, coupled with attempts by the Reichsbank to cause huge declines in the German money supply were partly intended to preserve the gold standard. Under the gold standard, each country set the value of its currency in terms of gold and took monetary actions to defend the fixed price. It is possible that had the Reichsbank expanded the money supply greatly in response to the crash, member states of Mitteleuropa would have lost confidence in the German commitment to the gold standard. This could have led to large gold outflows, and the German Empire could have been forced to devalue. Likewise, had the Reichsbank not tightened the money supply in the fall of 1936, it is possible that there would have been a speculative attack on the dollar and the German Empire would have been forced to abandon the gold standard along with the Dominion of Canada.
While there is debate about the role the gold standard played in limiting German monetary policy, there is no question that it was a key factor in the transmission of Germany’s economic decline to the rest of the world. Under the gold standard, imbalances in trade or asset flows gave rise to international gold flows. For example, in the mid-1920s intense international demand for German assets such as stocks and bonds brought large inflows of gold to the United States. Likewise, a decision by Russia after World War I to return to the gold standard with an undervalued ruble led to trade surpluses and substantial gold inflows. (See also balance of trade.)
Once the German economy began to contract severely, the tendency for gold to flow out of other countries and toward the German Empire intensified. This took place because deflation in the German Empire made German goods particularly desirable to foreigners, while low income among Germans reduced their demand for foreign products. To counteract the resulting tendency toward an German trade surplus and foreign gold outflows, central banks throughout the world raised interest rates. Maintaining the international gold standard, in essence, required a massive monetary contraction throughout the world to match the one occurring in the United States. The result was a decline in output and prices in countries throughout the world that nearly matched the downturn in the United States.
Given the key roles of monetary contraction and the austerity in the aftermath of the Crash in limiting the effects of the Imperial Depression, it is not surprising that robust government spending and monetary expansion were the leading sources of recovery throughout the world. There is a notable correlation between the times at which countries increased government action (generally in preparation for military conflict) and when they experienced renewed growth in their output. For example, Canada, which was embarking on a rapid mobilization following the death of King George V, recovered relatively early, while the United States, which had limited capacity for government expansion in the face of domestic unrest, recovered substantially later. Similarly, the eastern European countries of Poland and Ruthenia, which had comparatively small government outputs in 1935, experienced relatively mild downturns and had largely recovered by 1937 following the nationalization of German businesses in their borders. In contrast, the “Red Bloc” countries of Britain and France, which had completely decoupled from the German economy and were rapidly expanding their armed forces, were almost completely unaffected by the crash.
Recovery in the German Empire was stopped short by another distinct recession that began in March 1939 and lasted until January 1940. One source of the 1937–38 recession was a decision by the Federal Reserve to greatly increase reserve requirements. This move, which was prompted by fears of currency shortages in the event of War, caused the money supply to cease its rapid growth and to actually fall again. Fiscal contraction and a decrease in military procurements (a crucial element of German production) in an attempt to shore up government finances are also thought to have contributed to the downturn. That the German Empire experienced a second, very severe contraction before it had completely recovered from the enormous decline of 1936 is why Germany is considered to have remained depressed for the entire second half of the decade, and contributed to their inability to defend the Rhineland and Belgium in late 1939. It was only after the front stabilized and wartime production began in earnest that the Reichsbank and Reichskanzler von Schleicher were confident enough in their position to announce the revaluation of the Reichsmark against gold, giving the government access to the currency it needed for the war effort while allowing the Empire to stay on the gold standard.
submitted byWinth0rptoKaiserreich [link][comments]

2021.12.02 23:33 LeEmeraldB.147 Amendments

submitted byLeEmeraldtoModelEasternChamber [link][comments]

2021.12.02 23:33 LeEmeraldB.147

submitted byLeEmeraldtoModelEasternState [link][comments]

2021.12.01 15:13 MillennialBets$CNTX - The Boob Stock, and the Market Loves Boobs so we're Jacked to the Titties

Date: 2021-12-01 00:00:45, Author:u/caddude42069, (Karma: 18211, Created:Jun-2021)
SubReddit:squeezeplays, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
PRG 45.12 CNTX 6.88 AG 11.92 EBC 20.13 GLSI 31.77 III 8.23 IMMP 3.43
Based on the title I guess you can say this DD is for all the perverted apes out here
I thought about not writing anymore DD's, but due to the presence of u/joeskunk's massive big dongus brain I decided it would be a nice challenge to race him to multibagger call count 10 in the SqueezePlays subreddit. So with that being said, I decided to whip out a quick DD before this thing possibly heads to the moon.
Usually it takes me 10+ hours to write a proper DD since I usually go more in depth + analysis, but since this is just a quick DD, I'll be writing this in about 2 hours with the help of some friends. As a result, there may be some holes in my thesis, so tread carefully.
Anyways, with that being said, and without further ado, I present to you, the boob stock $CNTX. The market loves boobs. In the words of u/RefridgeratorOwn69, who already wrote a DD on CNTX just yesterday (link)

Your mom, girlfriend, hot female cousin, wife, and wife's boyfriend's other girlfriend will all be proud of you for investing in such a worthy cause.

Alright before I jump into the actual DD, I will be inputting DD's that I have read from other reddit users. You are free to look at their DD's below, they will all be credited for their work as we write this, and my input will be within it aswell.

• by u/Magnus_Chimpski - 🔬 Going (unnecessarily) deeper into Context Therapeutics Inc ($CNTX) (link)
• by u/North_Ad_4609 - CNTX IN PERSPECTIVE... CRAZY GAINS AHEAD (link)
• by u/RefrigeratorOwn69 - $CNTX. Big boob cancer cure, big buys by the CEO, big news coming soon. The only thing that's micro is the float. (link)

Our reports are not 'buy' or 'sell' signals, and are not intended to be a form of 'market manipulation' or 'pump and dumps'. We are simply providing information that is already available to the public market. None of the information we provide is financial advice.

• We provide in-depth due diligence reports by using information that is publicly available online
• Although we obtain information from sources we believe to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy. The opinions expressed in these due diligence reports may change without notice.
• The information posted is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. It's provided for information and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold a security. We strongly advise you to discuss your investment options with your financial adviser prior to making any investments, including whether any investment is suitable for your specific needs.

• Part 1: Squeeze Data
• Part 2: The Estimated Breaking Point and Technical Analysis
• Part 3: About the Company
• Part 4: Financials
• Part 5: Insider Buying/SEC filings
• Part 6: Catalysts
• Part 7: Bear Case and the FUD
• Part 8: Price Targets
• Part 9: How I am Playing it

The squeeze data is absolutely atrocious and almost nonexistent short interest. And it's for this reason why I almost decided to not post this in SqueezePlays but I mean, it isn't entirely bad. There's a decent CTB with under ~100k shorts available according to some brokerages

• Estimated SI% - 5.68% (finviz), 0.18% (fintel)
• CTB Avg - 54.7%
• Shares available to short - 80k (iborrowdesk), 55k (fintel)
• Dark Pool Short VolumeRatio - 59.59% (fintel)
• Short volume - above 50% for the past 3 trading days
• Current Price - $6.88 after hours
• Catalysts - see part 6.

https://preview.redd.it/niplh8283v281.png?width=734&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a1de1b06a39c20fa6e4787fde2fc8bdf921a87e
What's interesting to me is that the short exempt volume as of today (11-30) is at an all time high in comparison to 11-19, when the total volume was 2x. Additionally, it gradually increased, or rather abruptly increased from 0.
Okay you know what, after writing all of that perhaps the squeeze data doesn't look all that bad when you consider that this is potentially a microfloat (under one fucking million shares)
​
Finviz: 0.28M Shs Float
Yahoo Finance: 281.58k
Market Watch: 293.51K
Okay okay we got a microfloat on our hands here. That means this thing can get jacked to the titties. I mean, it's only appropriate I say that since we are talking about a boob stock right? I forgot to mention that there are no options being traded for this stock.. so all FOMO will be channeled through shares. In addition to this, average volume today was about 6M. If the free float was that small.. this is insane when you think about the ratios, and we haven't even hit previous max volume yet (17M).
The Estimated Breaking Point (EBP) is the value that the price needs to surpass and hold, in order for existing short positions to go from 'green' to 'neutral'. Meaning, that when the stock price exceeds the EBP, existing short positions are no longer profitable. This can force shorts to start covering to avoid unlimited losses, or can force shorts to double down on their position to induce downward price action so that they can be profitable. The EBP is essentially a 'good guess' of the cost basis of these short positions.
https://preview.redd.it/hsathjtg3v281.png?width=588&format=png&auto=webp&s=878b28d7b45f8d9a2407faf105f7c178fac19180
If this stock breaks $8.30, all shorts will be in the red. This is just trading based off the high of all time. So despite the SI being a lousy 5%, those suckers will be red and will have to suck on some titties. So we'll say the EBP is 8.30.

• Volume ramp - check and matches with current social media sentiment
• MACD - just bullishly flipped green
• RSI - not even oversold yet.

So from technicals, we know that this thing has a lot of room to run still. Especially since we haven't even reached previous max intraday volume yet (17M).
https://preview.redd.it/4q8wzbqi3v281.png?width=981&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ecb1bbfaf99602f8da6cdd3d8e0e46116f9cb0a
Their Vision (link)

Cancer is the third leading cause of death among women. Breast, ovarian, and endometrial (uterine) cancers are among the most prevalent of female cancers and are often hormonally-driven. The hormones estrogen and progesterone induce cancer progression in those patients, but antiestrogens are the only antihormonal therapy available to clinicians. Therefore, treatment of those patients to date has consisted of antiestrogens alone or in combination with drugs that enhance the antitumor activity of antiestrogens. Given the broad use of antiestrogens, antiestrogen resistance is now a major clinical challenge and the primary treatment option for patients with resistant disease is chemotherapy.Patients and their doctors seek a novel therapeutic option for women with hormone-dependent breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer.

What do they do? (link to Chimpski's DD)

As mentioned above, they are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. They focus mainly on developing therapies to try and cure/slow the progress of female cancers.They have two main drug candidates in their “pipeline”: Onapriston (ONA-XR) and Claudin 6 (CLDN6xCD3).Here are a couple videos, one from the Co-Founder and CEO and the other from the former President where they talk a little about the company.
An interview (2020) with the Co-Founder, CEO and Director Martin LehrSource link: Linkedin.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81jkLftrthE
An interview (2018) with Scott Applebaum (President of Context Therapeutics between 2017 and 2019)Source link: Linkedin.Citybizlist Interview: Part I - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovPWEfzv1GUCitybizlist Interview: Part II - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYFG0LIhQbACitybizlist Interview: Part III - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JStfRxG6w8Q

Their Pipeline
https://preview.redd.it/g67qc2kk3v281.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=a48c2c0372dfa925e31977ad69b863e652242dee
All of their pipeline products are in phase 2 going into phase 3 and on FDA fast track (bullish). With preliminary data into 2022, which is in a couple months. Just based off of catalysts this is the closest thing we have to the next $PROG type multiday run, and I haven't even talked about the biggest catalyst we have coming in December, which will have a whole bunch of tit fucking diamond handing horndogs looking forward to.
https://preview.redd.it/rfsgkpml3v281.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d93f38af42de123ad694b503d3733121267f93e
https://preview.redd.it/jpcw4fem3v281.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=01d8a829bc2b4aebdb449a962348061889df6ce9
Some input here from u/ChimpskisFlyingCircus DD (link)

• can't quote the entire thing as it gets rid of the formatting, so everything from here until part 4 is written from him and in his words unaltered.

*Tyligand Biosciences Ltd licensed rights to ONA-XR in China, Hong Kong, and Macau.**Granted FDA Fast Track designation.mBCa=metastatic breast cancer.Source link: Context Therapeutics website.
Onapristone (ONA-XR)
Onapristone is a “full progesterone receptor antagonist”, an investigational medicine that seeks to inhibit progesterone signaling by blocking the interaction between the progesterone and its receptor. Onapristone is currently the only known full progesterone receptor antagonist.
The drug was originally developed as an oral contraceptive in 1986 by Schering AG, a research-centered German multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Wedding, Berlin.
The drug was discontinued during phase III clinical trials in 1995 due to findings that liver function abnormalities developed in a majority of patients.
Developers that worked on the drug over the years include:

• Arno Therapeutics;
• Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals;
• Bayer Schering Pharma;
• Context Therapeutics;
• Jefferson Health;
• Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.

Source link: Wikipedia.
Progesterone is usually responsible for the development of sex organs, the regulation of the menstral cycle and plays a key role in hormonally-regulated tissue such as the breast.. Unfortunately cancerous cells “hijack” the patients progesterone and use it to stimulate proliferation, metastases, regeneration and immune evasion.Source link: Context Therapeutics website.
Context Therapeutics got its hands on Onapristone from Arno Therapeutics in 2018, when arno was shutting up shop.Source link: businesswire
The drug is currently in phase II clinical trials. Onapristone seeks to show some efficacy in the treatment of:

• Low grade serous ovarian cancer (a rare form of ovarian cancer accounting for less than 10% of ovarian cancers Source link: Cancer Network);
• Granulosa cell tumor of Ovary (a rare type of ovarian cancer, accounting for around 2% of ovarian cancers Source link: Rare Diseases);
• Breast cancer (a woman in the US has a ~13% chance to get breast cancer during her lifetime Source link: Cancer.org);
• Endometrial cancer (Around 50,000 women in the US are diagnosed with the disease every year Source link: Hopkins Medicine);

A more recent phase I study showed promising results for Onapristone for female patients that had already undergone other treatments for metastatic progesterone receptor-expressing cancers.Source link: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (2018).
CNTX conducted a safety evaluation with an Emphasis on Hepatotoxicity that returned promising results for their slow-release formula.Source link: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (2020).
Claudin 6
Claudin 6 is currently in the preclinical testing stage. The drug seeks to cure/slowdown the progression of ovarian and endometrial cancer.
To be honest I'm not here to preach Claudin 6’. It’s in preclinical trials, there is not much to go on. The main focus or “play” at hand is currently the presentation on Onapristone trials.

• Heres a link feel free to look at it (link)
• Not gonna jump into the details of their cash flow, income statement, or balance sheet as it's a biotech so it doesn't matter at this point. We know all biotechs have to burn cash to fund their research and what not

https://preview.redd.it/jdrvl6bp3v281.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=e51422ba38f0a7e7dd7125d0ed6856913a3c578f
Filed in the month of October: Share acquisition
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Filed in the month of November: Share acquisition
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(link)

Primary results from ONAWA (SOLTI-1802) trial of ONA-XR in early breast cancer to be presented in addition to updates from ongoing clinical trials of ONA-XR in metastatic breast cancerPHILADELPHIA, Nov. 19, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Context Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CNTX), a women’s oncology company developing small molecule and immunotherapy treatments to transform care for breast and gynecological cancers, today announced clinical data on onapristone extended release (ONA-XR) will be presented at the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS) taking place virtually and in San Antonio, Texas, from December 7-10, 2021.
“We are pleased that ONA-XR data from multiple stages of breast cancer will be presented at SABCS including the first clinical data from the ONAWA trial, sponsored by the Spanish cancer research group SOLTI, of ONA-XR in early-stage breast cancer and updates from two ongoing clinical trials of ONA-XR in metastatic breast cancer. We look forward to connecting with the oncology community at SABCS, to discuss advancements in breast cancer and further highlight the potential of ONA-XR to make a meaningful impact in the lives of people living with breast cancer,” said Martin Lehr, CEO of Context Therapeutics.
Details on the presentations are as follows:
Title: Primary results of ONAWA (SOLTI-1802) trial: A window of opportunity trial of onapristone in postmenopausal women with progesterone receptor-positive/HER2-negative early breast cancer (EBC) Abstract: 511 Session: Poster Session 1, Prognostic and Predictive Factors: Predictive Biomarkers for Endocrine Therapies Date / time: Wednesday, December 8, 2021, 8-9:30 a.m. ET / 7-8:30 a.m. CT Presenter: Meritxell Bellet, M.D., Ph.D., SOLTI Breast Cancer Research Group, Vall d’Hebron University Hospital, Vall d'Hebron Institute of Oncology (VHIO), Barcelona
Title: The SMILE study: A phase 2 trial of onapristone in combination with fulvestrant for patients with ER+ and HER2- metastatic breast cancer after progression on endocrine therapy and CDK4/6 inhibitors Abstract: 379 Session: Ongoing Trials Poster Sessions 2, Targeted therapy - antiprogestin onapristone Date / time: Thursday, December 9, 2021, 6-7:30 p.m. ET / 5-6:30 p.m. CT Presenter: Sailaja Kamaraju, M.D., Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wis., and Kari Wisinski, M.D., University of Wisconsin - Madison
Title: Circulating tumor DNA-guided adaptive therapy escalation in ER+ MBC: A phase 1b study with letrozole, palbociclib and onapristone ER Abstract: 1538 Session: Ongoing Trials Poster Session 2, Patient management - circulating tumor guided adaptive therapy Date / time: Thursday, December 9, 2021, 6-7:30 p.m. ET / 5-6:30 p.m. CT Presenter: Joshua Drago, M.D., Pedram Razavi, M.D., Ph.D., and Komal Jhaveri, M.D., Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer CenterDetails on the presentations listed above are also available on the 2021 SABCS website: https://www.sabcs.org/Program/Schedule-at-a-Glance.

So pretty much we have a run up all the way to December 7-10, which means potential diamond handing until then. We know how these run-ups work, we just saw it recently with OCGN which went from $7 all the way to $18 for a multi day run. This is what I mean by multiday runner. Gains are being held, and since everyone loves boobs, if you like grabbin em' why not hold on to em'. The perfect memeability stonk right now.
And obviously the other potential catalysts here are their other pipeline stuff. But what we are focusing on right now is December 7-10. In december they present at SABCS.
The importance of SABCS
SABCS is the san antonio breast cancer symposium, and this is an event that runs only annually. Right now we are at the 44th annual SABCS, this shit only runs once a year! In the words of u/North_Ad_4609,

SABCS is the conference where biopharmaceutical companies go to flex advancement they have made. Even minor updates usually excites Wallstreets and cancer research community.These are the few highlights from last year
( 12/7/2020-12/10/2020): Sellas life science $SLS provide their update on breast cancer and saw their share price move from 3.78 to 19.38 in a matter of 2 days from their poster Presentation on their clinical trial update. https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2020/12/11/2143766/0/en/SELLAS-Announces-Positive-Follow-up-Data-from-the-Randomized-Phase-2-VADIS-Trial-of-Nelipepimut-S-NPS-in-Women-with-Ductal-Carcinoma-In-Situ-of-the-Breast.html
$IMMP was also one of the many companies that saw their share price surge on their clinical update move surge from 2.10 to 7.95 in one day.https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/19/2110376/0/en/Immutep-to-Present-AIPAC-Overall-Survival-Data-at-the-San-Antonio-Breast-Cancer-Symposium-2020.htmlMost of the breast cancer stocks presenting at SABCS last year did very well and it’s a typical outcome almost every year but the biggest squeeze came from
$GLSI due to promising clinical data and small float. $GLSI squeezed from 5.32 to 158 (thats a whopping 3000% squeeze in one freaking day).
The point I am trying to make is that CNTX is bound to Squeeze too. With four clinical trial updates at a conference where you go to share great highlights And advancement in Breast cancer, I think they are going in there loaded. Also today's price seem to indicate that a runner up is about to begin... with catalyst coming up in 2 weeks. Again don't forget the CEO loaded the shares from the market at 7.14/share, 2 weeks removed from the IPO. He knows something. Insiders indicated an interest to buy a million shares following the IPO all captured in the SEC filings. The quiet period for CNTX is ending on 11/29 and we can expect more PRs.

What I want to highlight is that $GLSI squeeze. I think we can expect a similar move, potentially going into the high double, digits-triple digit area since we are working with such a small float. I have no way to confirm the short interest on $GLSI before the run up, but I'd imagine that it's in the same ballpark of what $CNTX is in right now, and with the float being the size that it is currently, we know this is very very very possible. Shorts have been getting a little bit greedy and overextended as of lately, and I know a lot of these amateur shorts are trying to take advantage of the market FUD, which is what led to the rise of certain squeeze stocks in the bio department such as $LGVN. We can get nice intraday squeezes which will have massive effect in the price action since we are dealing with a tiny float.
$GLSI - $6 to $150...... lol
I am not entirely sure about the accuracy of david's comment here, as I am not a boob scientist, but the more reason for titties the merrier!
​
I literally can't find any.. boobs are fucking awesome.
Just kidding, there may be a few
(1) The free float is wrong, it's 5M!

• Regardless of the float size, we know that this shit is TINY. Therefore it can move on little volume and the best part is we have GOOD volume.
• I can't confirm if this float is correct as I am not one of those DD guys that know about all that float calculation (still learning), so I usually stick to what finviz, yahoo finance, and what webull tell me to get a ballpark estimate. I don't need to be exact when it comes to these things, especially because I'm playing the catalyst not the float (as we've seen in some deSPACs like $IRNT, $SPIR, $OPAD, $TMC, etc). But regardless of whether that's true or not, we know that insiders are not going to sell right before their catalyst in December 7-10. In fact, they have been BUYING before the catalyst date so we know that they expect good news to be presented. SABCS is not an event where you present shitty data, this is an annual flex your titties event. We know it's gonna be good.

(2) Zack Morris is in the play, and he's a pumper and a scammer!

• Yes Zack Morris from twitter (very large following) is known for being a pumper, but he only picks stocks that he believes he can multibag on. I've been following him for a very long time, and the guy knows shit. He's been in the market much longer than I have
• If anyone would be rewarded the ultimate dongus multibagger flair on squeezeplays it would be him. He beats both u/joeskunk and myself combined by a million miles. Just take a look at his track record, and the screenshot below doesn't even include all of the other stocks he multibagged on. He doesn't really do options either. In the screenshot it says his worst call is $WISH, but we know when he called $WISH it went from around $8 to $15 from what I remember. So that's still some gains.
• So overall I think the presence of Zack Morris is more of a benefit than it is FUD.

https://preview.redd.it/0rbceex64v281.png?width=501&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a75c2c232508167aa2a8f3b04ca6cce59e9430f
(3) It looks like the ship has sailed

• Two points, first, the catalyst has not even been reached yet. Second, we haven't even reached all time highs. And actually third, we haven't even hit double digits yet. Maybe even throw triple digits in there too if you are jacked to the titties

(4) No options chain, boring

• Having no options chain is actually a good thing here.
• 100% of all FOMO will go straight into shares.. and into a tiny float BOOM

(5) Dilution

• SEC filings look relatively clean, they just IPO'd, and there is no presence of the nasty S-3 filing

(6) Number of employees: 2
(FUD comment found from u/RefrigeratorOwn69 in his DD that he posted yesterday (link to it here), note I have not been able to confirm his claim on $GLSI, for which he is quoted below)

Uh huh... So 2 guys in Philly came up with a cure for cancer which has stumped multibillion dollar drug companies and significantly better funded and known researchers who have been researching for a cure for decades.
There are 9 employees on LinkedIn.Now go look at $GLSI and tell me how many employees they had when they presented at last year’s conference (answer: 1) and what their stock did during the conference (answer: oh it, went 10x).

(7) Scrolled through the website. Would be nice if there weren't typos. Pretty sure someone in the management chain could play janitor for the day and clean it up... Also the session is: Session: Poster Session 1, Prognostic and Predictive Factors: Predictive Biomarkers for Endocrine Therapies
Predictive biomarkers sounds more like they will present ideas around detecting disease or therapy... not quite a treatment breakthrough
(FUD comment found from u/RefrigeratorOwn69 in his DD that he posted yesterday (link to it here), note I have not been able to confirm his claim on $GLSI, for which he is quoted below)

Admittedly, the website is a bit messy. But I don't think what you concluded about what they'll be presenting is consistent with what they're saying:“We are pleased that ONA-XR data from multiple stages of breast cancer will be presented at SABCS including the first clinical data from the ONAWA trial, sponsored by the Spanish cancer research group SOLTI, of ONA-XR in early-stage breast cancer and updates from two ongoing clinical trials of ONA-XR in metastatic breast cancer. We look forward to connecting with the oncology community at SABCS, to discuss advancements in breast cancer and further highlight the potential of ONA-XR to make a meaningful impact in the lives of people living with breast cancer,” said Martin Lehr, CEO of Context Therapeutics.About Onapristone Extended ReleaseONA-XR (onapristone extended release) is a potent and specific antagonist of the progesterone receptor (PR) that is orally administered. Currently, there are no approved therapies that selectively target PR+ cancers. Preliminary preclinical and clinical data suggest that ONA-XR has anticancer activity by inhibiting progesterone receptor binding to chromatin, downregulating cancer stem cell mobilization and blocking immune evasion. ONA-XR is currently being evaluated in three Phase 2 clinical trials and one Phase 1b/2 clinical trial in PR+ breast, ovarian and endometrial cancers, as well as in two Phase 0 biomarker pharmacodynamic trials in breast cancer. ONA-XR is an investigational drug that has not been approved for marketing by any regulatory authority.

Current price: closed at $6.88

• Most likely: $8
• Likely: $8.30 then $10
• If everything goes correctly: $13, then $20
• If it matches other squeezes: $40-50
• If we match $GLSI: $100-$150, but probably ~$120
• Long term (10 years): Over $50

Play it however you want. Price targets don't matter. Trade your own plan and do whatever the fuck you wanna do. For me personally I am probably going to hold this stock into the run-up. Due to the Zack Morris following, I know this is going to get pumped and FOMOers will buy once $10 breaks. I am almost certain this will break double digits. So anyways the $10 mark is where I expect amateur shorts to start opening short positions, and it is where I plan to average up on my current position as I know I can size in at those levels due to liquidity being handed over to me. It's where I'm gonna be dropping my dongus. If all else, I plan to average down on this swing and I don't mind being red since I know how to mitigate my losses and manage my risk.

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One thing to point, even though the SI is very low, I expect multiple intraday squeezes on this lowfloater. Market FUD has been red and favoring short sellers, but usually these waves of market FUD bring in amateur shorts that don't know what their doing (I am just speaking from experience), and it's how I've adapted to current market conditions. Take for example, my play-by-play here when I entered $PPSI and decided to shit-tweet on twitter while hand holding for the beginners
​
https://preview.redd.it/ku1ahyv84v281.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef6a5abddc537fe238787021647f91211eead9c
But anyways enough about me, I am buying $CNTX because I like the stock and because I like tatas.

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